Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9e5c3cd94a631af074be0ba000fbff5558cece0596565d6617275f1e7ffe56f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 41c | 755.24$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.34 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 36c | 442.8$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 55c | 421.56$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 63c | 360.04$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 42c | 334.81$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.12 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb7…4eaebacked No | 44c | 280$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 42c | 264.54$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.18 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 223$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked No | 24c | 208.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 194.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…fd3bbacked No | 67c | 186.51$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 71c | 180.85$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 164.17$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 42c | 158.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 36c | 119.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 42c | 110.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 60c | 104$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 62c | 97.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 68c | 95.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 58c | 91.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 74c | 90.44$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 35c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 44c | 84.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 81.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 39c | 77.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 33c | 74.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x937d…ec25backed Yes | 60c | 70.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 64c | 64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 58c | 63.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 42c | 58.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 35c | 55.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 38c | 51.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked Yes | 65c | 50.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b4…5389backed Yes | 55c | 49.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…b9a1backed No | 33c | 46.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed Yes | 67c | 45.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked No | 26c | 41.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…9ccbbacked Yes | 74c | 41.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 28c | 39.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 43c | 34.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 32c | 33.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 70c | 32.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 39c | 31.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 68c | 29.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked Yes | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 62c | 26.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…d91cbacked Yes | 77c | 26.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…4404backed Yes | 61c | 24.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 54c | 24.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 62c | 20.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 60c | 20.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 68c | 19.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 68c | 19.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 68c | 18.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe646…4f8fbacked Yes | 61c | 16.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.