Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba1fc365b66ca84ea09addcebe199e11d3c82aaa6550b78c5cabac3367ee71a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 34c | 397.03$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.1 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 331.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 315.29$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 255.5$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.48 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 223.79$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 12c | 219.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 202.27$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 151.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.55 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 59c | 144.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 55c | 102.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 41c | 97.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 90.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 47c | 90.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 69c | 90$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 86.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 19c | 85.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 40c | 84.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 82.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 47c | 80.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 53c | 75.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 49c | 61.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 57c | 61.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 60.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 58c | 59.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 25c | 59.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 55c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 49.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 48.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 47.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 41c | 44.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 40c | 42.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 41.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 59c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 38.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 63c | 35.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 34.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 43c | 31.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 56c | 31.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…140fbacked Yes | 49c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 29.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 35c | 28.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked No | 75c | 25.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 25.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 54c | 21.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 49c | 20.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 17.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 78c | 16.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.