Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba203096658eeaeaf5e131b62d37e124cb5c9b42ebeb4f2650bca104ca9af8ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 37c | 342.97$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.58 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 289.83$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 58c | 272.24$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.8 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 225.62$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 223.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 56c | 221.89$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.87 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 202.51$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 188.35$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.68 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 187.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 39c | 174.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 30c | 139.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 131.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 27c | 116.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 42c | 110.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 61c | 109.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 18c | 101.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 12c | 92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 44c | 88.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 35c | 86.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 15c | 85.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 61c | 85.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…27a6backed No | 67c | 82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 44c | 80.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 43c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 44c | 72.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 44c | 72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 70.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 70.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 47c | 69.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 69.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 41c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 65.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 27c | 58.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 61c | 52.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 37c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 51.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 48.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 48.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1076…02a8backed No | 58c | 47.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 40c | 46.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 43c | 46.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 44.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdf05…c401backed No | 58c | 44.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 36c | 42.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25fa…e196backed No | 56c | 41.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…3756backed Yes | 36c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 40c | 37.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 36.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9576…8548backed Yes | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…2b6fbacked No | 58c | 33.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ac…ab88backed Yes | 46c | 31.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 44c | 30.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1c…dbcebacked Yes | 46c | 30.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ef…69aabacked No | 57c | 29.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 27.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…47febacked Yes | 45c | 27.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…3de8backed No | 58c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e2…3baebacked Yes | 46c | 24.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…a38abacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 58c | 19.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 17.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.