CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs HAVU - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba2556abd95feda5c5ef539250089fb194c8fa8a2b42cb3779a93b17ae30e25e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Black Phoenixof Black Phoenix, HAVU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked HAVU | 42c | 2,636$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.57 | 1,011 | 52.3%529 W · 482 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…917ebacked HAVU | 26c | 1,338$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.13 | 277 | 40.8%113 W · 164 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Black Phoenix | 68c | 1,126$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.88 | 1,033 | 53.2%550 W · 483 L | +64.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed HAVU | 47c | 899.98$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.99 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0063…2dd2backed Black Phoenix | 77c | 896.49$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.79 | 402 | 64.7%260 W · 142 L | +49.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Black Phoenix | 64c | 831.05$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.63 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Black Phoenix | 62c | 599.56$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.31 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Black Phoenix | 59c | 577.75$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.24 | 1,088 | 54.2%590 W · 498 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked HAVU | 40c | 570.43$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.98 | 384 | 54.2%208 W · 176 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…e9c9backed Black Phoenix | 62c | 564.52$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8789…e320backed HAVU | 47c | 519.45$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Black Phoenix | 52c | 457$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.22 | 619 | 48%297 W · 322 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked HAVU | 48c | 417.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 258 | 46.1%119 W · 139 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed HAVU | 33c | 411.93$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.06 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Black Phoenix | 65c | 400$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.88 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked HAVU | 16c | 397.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Black Phoenix | 52c | 384.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.53 | 323 | 44.3%143 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Black Phoenix | 69c | 360$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.25 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…0635backed HAVU | 33c | 319.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.18 | 317 | 49.5%157 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Black Phoenix | 60c | 305$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.17 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked HAVU | 28c | 278.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 752 | 45.3%341 W · 411 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Black Phoenix | 62c | 267.97$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 1,407 | 38.9%547 W · 860 L | -41.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…faaebacked HAVU | 58c | 251.07$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6b…acabbacked HAVU | 49c | 223.42$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.48 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…9590backed HAVU | 37c | 207.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Black Phoenix | 55c | 186.85$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…0717backed HAVU | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 295 | 43.1%127 W · 168 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…dd38backed HAVU | 48c | 143.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 370 | 57%211 W · 159 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdccf…faeabacked Black Phoenix | 51c | 137.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked HAVU | 48c | 126$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 495 | 36.4%180 W · 315 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked HAVU | 18c | 117.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…f3e6backed HAVU | 48c | 113.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 419 | 38.9%163 W · 256 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…7579backed Black Phoenix | 80c | 111.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked HAVU | 22c | 111.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Black Phoenix | 52c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +17.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Black Phoenix | 52c | 102$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 401 | 37.2%149 W · 252 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed HAVU | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Black Phoenix | 54c | 97.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…2aeebacked HAVU | 59c | 84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…3a4cbacked HAVU | 30c | 81.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Black Phoenix | 56c | 77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f38…13c8backed Black Phoenix | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d37…ba9ebacked HAVU | 44c | 72.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0f59backed HAVU | 34c | 72.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 218 | 45.9%100 W · 118 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed HAVU | 42c | 68.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 610 | 54.9%335 W · 275 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2f…8155backed HAVU | 36c | 67.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed HAVU | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,083 | 42.1%456 W · 627 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked HAVU | 32c | 60.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Black Phoenix | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af6…ffdbbacked Black Phoenix | 52c | 57.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Black Phoenix | 58c | 57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Black Phoenix | 54c | 50.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…cb3dbacked Black Phoenix | 51c | 49.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 170 | 67.6%115 W · 55 L | +14.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked HAVU | 46c | 47.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 1,068 | 55%587 W · 481 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked HAVU | 50c | 42.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Black Phoenix | 64c | 42.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…529abacked Black Phoenix | 47c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked HAVU | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 655 | 48.9%320 W · 335 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed Black Phoenix | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 457 | 48.1%220 W · 237 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…105abacked Black Phoenix | 43c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…58aabacked Black Phoenix | 45c | 34.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Black Phoenix | 53c | 34.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 410 | 54.6%224 W · 186 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x824a…3952backed HAVU | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 141 | 39.7%56 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed HAVU | 36c | 32.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9c…fd70backed HAVU | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f4…106cbacked Black Phoenix | 60c | 30.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Black Phoenix | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 397 | 72.5%288 W · 109 L | +38.5wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb66e…ffc2backed Black Phoenix | 53c | 28.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…1ea1backed Black Phoenix | 50c | 27.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4c…2200backed Black Phoenix | 74c | 26.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed HAVU | 42c | 25.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 288 | 43.1%124 W · 164 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Black Phoenix | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked HAVU | 47c | 21.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 850 | 54.4%462 W · 388 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe6…13e3backed Black Phoenix | 51c | 21.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe37f…6635backed Black Phoenix | 69c | 20.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Black Phoenix | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa32…a296backed Black Phoenix | 71c | 17.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 37 | 83.8%31 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66a6…f22bbacked Black Phoenix | 72c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Black Phoenix | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 700 | 42.3%296 W · 404 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs HAVU - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #7 Group StageBlack Phoenix won
- Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs HAVU - Map 2 WinnerBlack Phoenix won
- Map Handicap: Black Phoenix (-1.5) vs HAVU (+1.5)Black Phoenix won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.