Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba8f4d3a35b9c570ab5701297af9bb5c8eaa19cd0b4601ff838d273f927b71a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 1,168$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.47 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 662.28$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 42c | 425.33$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.32 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 368.05$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 274.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 45c | 245.79$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.53 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 47c | 186.84$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.93 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 182.29$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 38c | 176.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 62c | 169.59$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 49c | 167.73$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.85 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 140.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 59c | 133.64$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 129.64$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 54c | 111.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 46c | 111.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 50c | 105.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 102.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 36c | 95.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…aa4fbacked Yes | 49c | 93.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 47c | 85.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 80.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 51c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 55c | 59.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 58.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 45.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 55c | 44.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 63c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 64c | 38.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0110…af5dbacked Yes | 63c | 36.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 35.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 34.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 33.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 36c | 33.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 30.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 54c | 30.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 29.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 38c | 28.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 68c | 27.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 66c | 25.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 46c | 23.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 20.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 51c | 20.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…df40backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 62c | 18.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 67c | 17.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…84cdbacked No | 69c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.