Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Venezuela (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaf99039c78417ffcc732c900e20f7c4102115bc7a8c5c6141233a6868fa11b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Venezuelaof Venezuela, Iraq
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Venezuela | 29c | 2,774$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,975.06 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Iraq | 68c | 1,362$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.31 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Iraq | 69c | 502.27$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.97 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Venezuela | 38c | 296.6$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.97 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Venezuela | 20c | 293$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.14 | 233 | 63.5%148 W · 85 L | +19.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Venezuela | 19c | 262$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.22 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…e35ebacked Venezuela | 30c | 240.27$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.19 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Venezuela | 20c | 239.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 585 | 30.9%181 W · 404 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Iraq | 42c | 237.04$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e9…4288backed Venezuela | 16c | 218.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.75 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…4160backed Iraq | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 62.5%60 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed Iraq | 22c | 137.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…9d84backed Venezuela | 18c | 98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Iraq | 61c | 85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fe…1471backed Iraq | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 18.9%28 W · 120 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…46fbbacked Iraq | 25c | 74.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12c…cdfbbacked Iraq | 65c | 67.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Iraq | 71c | 63.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb6…67edbacked Venezuela | 17c | 61.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Venezuela | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 1,380 | 40.2%555 W · 825 L | -51.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Iraq | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0783…00d3backed Iraq | 71c | 19.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Iraq | 78c | 18.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Venezuela (-1.5)this page
- Iraq vs. Venezuela: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 0.5Over won
- Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5Over won
- Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 2.5Under won
- Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 3.5Under won
- Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 4.5Under won
- Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 5.5Under won
- Iraq vs. Venezuela: Venezuela O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: Venezuela (-2.5)Iraq won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.