Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbe764bb5ceb758e1f7f280194b3a9ac18a9023ae4744064ed5c5ad9ae259834
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed No | 78c | 10,500$8,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,310 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 77c | 8,009$6,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,842.13 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 23c | 7,500$1,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,725 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 22c | 4,818$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.91 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 11c | 3,102$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.24 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 15c | 2,158$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.29 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 59c | 2,090$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.27 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Yes | 22c | 1,310$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.28 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 22c | 1,250$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 22c | 1,250$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 78c | 1,075$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.5 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 52c | 992.97$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.69 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 61c | 918.7$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.36 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 78c | 881$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.82 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 43c | 826.29$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.36 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +13.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 43c | 685$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.45 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 644.92$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.27 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 22c | 633.52$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.38 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Yes | 3c | 633.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 42c | 483.71$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.58 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 22c | 454.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…ae13backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 55c | 431.94$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.62 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 32c | 420.45$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.06 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11cd…e5a8backed Yes | 62c | 370.94$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…fa68backed No | 41c | 338.97$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 22c | 329.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Yes | 30c | 326.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 55c | 300$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.14 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 32c | 252$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 201.11$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 46c | 193.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 51c | 167.71$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…dce0backed Yes | 26c | 155.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked No | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc22…9c09backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 49c | 122.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed Yes | 49c | 121.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 69c | 113.22$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Yes | 22c | 109.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked No | 78c | 108.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…6b66backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 44c | 95.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…c814backed Yes | 31c | 94.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 57c | 94.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked No | 66c | 91.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b8…233abacked Yes | 22c | 89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed Yes | 16c | 80.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 72c | 78.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…5800backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked No | 69c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…12bdbacked Yes | 31c | 61.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 24c | 61.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked No | 53c | 49.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5c…2ba2backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 23c | 47.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked No | 78c | 40.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…236dbacked No | 41c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 71c | 35.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed No | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e3…3678backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 51c | 23.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…0000backed No | 50c | 20.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 57c | 18.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed No | 78c | 17.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked No | 71c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 77c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-08-01?Yes won
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-08-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.