Mls · resolved market
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-08-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6786622fa1efe352184007ec6a8a6feb36d20444c9cd74b78957ab2b402d2206
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x911b…344fbacked Yes | 25c | 2,923$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 2,460$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.71 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 26c | 2,446$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.35 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Yes | 27c | 1,855$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 20c | 1,492$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.67 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 73c | 1,453$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.44 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed No | 74c | 1,393$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.67 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 73c | 1,250$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.5 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 796.78$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.82 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…12bdbacked Yes | 26c | 746.86$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.97 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 48c | 738.43$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.95 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 45c | 735.15$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.45 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 74c | 706.06$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.58 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…7fd6backed Yes | 27c | 523$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Yes | 4c | 450$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…8fc6backed Yes | 46c | 420$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 5c | 372$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 369$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b8…8921backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -57%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 69c | 332.7$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.17 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 8c | 297$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…1e9abacked Yes | 5c | 295.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 71c | 260.52$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 32c | 253.57$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Yes | 37c | 240.81$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.72 | 94 | 37.2%35 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…84e1backed Yes | 46c | 238.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb6…4938backed No | 76c | 228.91$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5247…ece7backed No | 42c | 220$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 30c | 219.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 205.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…ef8ebacked No | 74c | 193.82$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 149.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42d7…b4c4backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…ea0abacked No | 67c | 145.01$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Yes | 10c | 138.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Yes | 55c | 131.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…a2d3backed No | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed No | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed No | 67c | 94.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 15c | 94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed No | 76c | 93.45$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 47 | 80.9%38 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 28c | 83.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 63c | 75.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Yes | 42c | 74.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked No | 73c | 65.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 74c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 56.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 73c | 55.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…41b2backed Yes | 27c | 53.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…0e83backed Yes | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b1…59e6backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed No | 59c | 46.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 64c | 46.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Yes | 27c | 42.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed No | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 74c | 39.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 47c | 38.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 27c | 37.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked No | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 64c | 27.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…0ff5backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed No | 59c | 23.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked No | 74c | 20.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 75c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-08-01?this page
- Will FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-08-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.