TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pacersof Cavaliers, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,708
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,093

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,708 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x033d…fd1ebacked Cavaliers48c7,600$3,656 inLost-$3,65610252%53 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Pacers53c5,175$2,751 inWon+$2,424.261,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Pacers49c1,987$974 inWon+$1,013.732,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Cavaliers48c504.58$242 inLost-$242.21,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81cf…9227backed Cavaliers25c230.71$57 inLost-$56.839549.5%47 W · 48 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Pacers50c160$80 inWon+$8037665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Pacers49c133.78$66 inWon+$68.2334247.7%163 W · 179 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3761…3d9dbacked Pacers77c128.44$99 inWon+$29.831369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69b7…ae1dbacked Pacers78c126.9$99 inWon+$28.249450%47 W · 47 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Cavaliers47c103.98$49 inLost-$48.8752230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31c7…eca3backed Cavaliers48c101.35$48 inLost-$48.433132.3%10 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-32.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Pacers49c99.18$49 inWon+$50.5855751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd121…50c8backed Cavaliers50c97$49 inLost-$48.518552.4%97 W · 88 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Pacers51c84.48$43 inWon+$41.392,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67e1…23d9backed Cavaliers14c75.24$10 inLost-$10.371421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d15…8026backed Cavaliers50c58.2$29 inLost-$29.127854.7%152 W · 126 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Pacers50c30.2$15 inWon+$153,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Pacers53c30$16 inWon+$14.137753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Cavaliers54c20$11 inLost-$10.826043.8%114 W · 146 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.