Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc2e7c0fda7c98fa4d4ff78c633aebd41030e13e454fa216ef8e2a62e0eec3b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 34c | 1,991$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.75 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 67c | 857.57$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.17 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 333.65$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.55 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 300$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 221.59$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 210.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 171.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.48 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 59c | 169.72$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.53 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 149.1$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 31c | 132.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 70c | 125.51$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 70c | 120$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 39c | 118.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 43c | 117.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 41c | 104.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 45c | 103.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3d…bdddbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 86.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 69c | 77.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 49c | 71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 68c | 70.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 56c | 69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 71c | 68.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 44c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 56.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…6dcebacked Yes | 31c | 56.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 54c | 43.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 43.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 64c | 42.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 38.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 35.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 32.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9e…5bdcbacked Yes | 76c | 32.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 73cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 41c | 30.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 27.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 23.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 54c | 23.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 73c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…dcfebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 87°F or below on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.