Serie A · resolved market
ACF Fiorentina vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc5b9fac0b4e30006f65150e0cf33e548255e5b815a7310fadbedfc60218ef9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,182 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 5,033$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.8 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 29c | 1,961$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.81 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…0e08backed Under | 10c | 999.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 789.22$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.84 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 56c | 407.17$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.16 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 44c | 323.82$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.48 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 13c | 310.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…5ac3backed Under | 10c | 295.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +68%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 290.06$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.64 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Under | 12c | 207.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45bd…ddc3backed Over | 56c | 205.36$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 80c | 198.88$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 57c | 194.81$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.77 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 79c | 188$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 80c | 182.9$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 58c | 170.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 63c | 142.4$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 80c | 124.23$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Over | 80c | 111.62$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 61c | 98.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 59c | 90.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 68c | 72.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Over | 80c | 62.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 80c | 62.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa64e…5d27backed Over | 80c | 62.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…ff11backed Over | 80c | 58.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…e406backed Over | 80c | 53.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1172…9b72backed Over | 80c | 47.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 66c | 45.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 54c | 38.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 58c | 37.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Over | 80c | 24.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 74cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ACF Fiorentina vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)FC Internazionale Milano won
- Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5)ACF Fiorentina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.