Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcac6fc29798613be4ca6bd02f087f1a17bc7adfb24af3a6bdcedd161c6924c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b9…5447backed Yes | 3c | 1,122$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +263.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…e15abacked Yes | 3c | 932$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 5c | 828.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 20c | 825.29$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.45 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 2c | 733.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 11c | 642.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 17c | 529.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 11c | 475.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 20c | 347.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 324.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 17c | 298.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…d8a6backed Yes | 12c | 249$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 19c | 188.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 180.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 12c | 132.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 20c | 124.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 15c | 113.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…24aabacked Yes | 13c | 103.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f3…92d6backed Yes | 10c | 102.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 99.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 13c | 96.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 16c | 73.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cc…c448backed Yes | 17c | 65.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 16c | 62.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 18c | 61.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 77c | 60.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 23c | 60.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 23c | 54.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…798abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed Yes | 24c | 49.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 21c | 47.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…d5e9backed No | 80c | 30.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 79c | 24.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 23.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 79c | 15.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 78c | 14.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 78c | 12.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.