Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9b8ba7d2280021f31fd1cd8c1f02e5dd288ec4dfde26bda12d0db7d1dcb4183
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 7,713$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.31 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 8c | 5,523$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.78 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…18c7backed Yes | 5c | 3,650$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09dd…542fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,644$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.05 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 1,216$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 1,156$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 54c | 1,063$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.47 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…b863backed Yes | 9c | 1,059$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.21 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,043$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.1 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 8c | 998.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 751.76$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 34c | 700.72$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.75 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 10c | 553.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 14c | 520.95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 22c | 518.65$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.28 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 3c | 516.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 16c | 504.93$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.37 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 479.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 471.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 9c | 471.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…c940backed No | 78c | 455.24$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.53 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed No | 70c | 450$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 70c | 437.3$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.89 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 65c | 426.78$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.7 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 24c | 381.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.33 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 4c | 367.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 362.32$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…2506backed Yes | 8c | 352.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 80c | 342.96$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 7c | 325.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed Yes | 5c | 309.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 41c | 304.55$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.81 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…734cbacked Yes | 7c | 303.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 24c | 299.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed No | 72c | 296.36$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 294.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes | 19c | 286.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 13c | 261.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…7ababacked No | 70c | 260.96$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed Yes | 70c | 250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 16c | 224.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 42c | 222.79$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.51 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 43c | 219.66$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.05 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 67c | 211.49$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 6c | 206.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 72c | 201.06$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 41c | 199.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 40c | 190.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked No | 78c | 186.63$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 53c | 185.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 8c | 176.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 55c | 176.45$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.44 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 27c | 153.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 14c | 148.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 146.96$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 8c | 141.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 80c | 136.26$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 15c | 133.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…4512backed Yes | 17c | 115.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 16c | 111.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 22c | 89.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 68c | 84.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed No | 75c | 80.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3670…963ebacked Yes | 16c | 80.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 15c | 78.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed No | 76c | 78.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 14c | 77.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 52c | 73.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 16c | 71.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 70.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 56c | 69.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 36c | 68.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…87babacked No | 80c | 61.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 23c | 60.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…b096backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked Yes | 20c | 58.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 67c | 57.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…80c1backed No | 77c | 56.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 80c | 49.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…bf48backed Yes | 62c | 49.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd662…aeb5backed Yes | 49c | 48.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 61c | 46.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 45.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 39c | 43.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 79c | 41.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 37c | 38.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 54c | 35.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 58c | 34.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…097dbacked Yes | 42c | 34.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 57c | 31.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed Yes | 42c | 30.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.