TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on April 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,193
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,921

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,193 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa631…7651backed Yes8c2,460$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.1310225.5%26 W · 76 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c1…c53fbacked Yes22c937.04$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.213122.6%7 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes26c810.57$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.8510120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b7…b863backed Yes5c555.68$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.81160%0 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes6c542.34$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes6c531.83$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.912,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes39c480.97$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.5665043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94da…25b5backed Yes15c451.48$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.183707.8%29 W · 341 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No78c444.91$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.054,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes22c386.55$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.551,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b7f…2b4ebacked Yes26c334.84$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.38333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e45…4815backed Yes20c302.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.83616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.923823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes6c300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1934918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes4c299.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd662…aeb5backed Yes22c298.25$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.722045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No68c296.75$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.338,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes12c293.68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7869520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes13c291.42$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.362,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a6…0937backed Yes36c290.15$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.011631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x178d…357cbacked Yes13c279.64$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes9c270.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7713010.8%14 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No76c263.15$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.162,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes14c251.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4659440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed No80c250.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.957659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes13c230.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No79c216.14$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.527,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes16c212.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.191,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fab…775abacked Yes15c203.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.84789%7 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes26c198.61$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0114632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes12c196.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.061,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8171…66a5backed Yes11c186.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.864526.7%12 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes20c184$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.754,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5208…ec3abacked Yes20c177.91$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.363636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cae…def2backed No78c173.39$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.633669.4%25 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a5e…81ffbacked Yes27c168.39$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.31127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53dd…96e4backed Yes18c162.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.24520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-72.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes10c160$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.61,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No80c151.15$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8911874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes12c149.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.56317.5%11 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c26…9b6fbacked Yes9c145.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.762330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7515…0f90backed Yes21c142.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2915954.7%87 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No75c140.03$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.32,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f3c…edb0backed Yes11c133.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No64c132.98$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.711,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed Yes25c128.86$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2725447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed Yes26c125.93$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2818242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes16c124.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1948331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bdc…a0babacked No71c123.51$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.148068.8%55 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes11c123.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9760519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes14c122.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.557,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xdbc0…1843backed No80c120$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2414372%103 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes19c117.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5459125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No65c115.46$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8732652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…d923backed Yes28c114.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.368436.9%31 W · 53 L-12.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-41.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4ea7…e13fbacked Yes20c108.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.135925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb5c…7a29backed Yes16c108.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba2a…0cc9backed Yes20c105.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes31c105.22$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4313943.9%61 W · 78 L-12.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No66c103.43$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.512,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes15c103.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa15f…ad19backed No79c96.63$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.271662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x455c…bf0abacked Yes20c92.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-57.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked Yes33c86.81$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2629751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb02f…24aabacked Yes13c83.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.752615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes13c81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5372624.8%180 W · 546 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No80c80.08$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3198571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No74c68.97$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2526566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed No78c67.17$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.858969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd1…2b0cbacked Yes21c66.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes24c66.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.777428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No63c65.55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4831542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes18c64.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.531,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No78c64.68$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0721676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No68c61.77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7727167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd9…2d15backed Yes25c60.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.922231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f03…42a6backed Yes21c58.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.333826.3%10 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe358…0822backed Yes24c58.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.86837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4cc…c448backed Yes32c58.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d34…c24bbacked Yes39c56.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1132444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No72c49.47$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8535168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed No80c49.15$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0426253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdda2…ffa9backed No79c48.41$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.17785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick56cpaid+58.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fb4…695fbacked No78c44.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.765773.7%42 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No77c41.59$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5897570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31e2…a655backed No77c38.24$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.946275.8%47 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No75c35.92$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.916575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b85…7265backed No78c35.36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.83860.5%23 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No80c34.13$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8344448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.278663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No74c29.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6548672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No78c29.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4454966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked No78c29.33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.611145%50 W · 61 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No76c29.28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0325175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No77c26.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…ff74backed No79c25.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.465255.8%29 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1304…751ebacked No70c25.41$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6213067.7%88 W · 42 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed No79c25.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2116157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No76c25.12$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1422675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.