Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7df2b6e7da9d4972ef869c57b931929ba5bc7e2d60e2e1eae8db1118a9cb424c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 2,320$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 28c | 938$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.35 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 712.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 9c | 695.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 655.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 21c | 548.93$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.86 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed No | 65c | 471.41$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.84 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 4c | 462.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 17c | 438.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 68c | 370.51$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.87 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 3c | 366.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 24c | 297.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed Yes | 27c | 297.42$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…8bc6backed Yes | 3c | 297.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 24c | 295.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 69c | 275.21$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 15c | 233.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 66c | 224.88$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 205.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 203.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 12c | 190.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 179.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 11c | 177.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 12c | 149.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 67c | 149.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 148.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 140.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 136.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 132.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 20c | 127.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 31c | 119.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 65c | 111.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes | 13c | 110.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 16c | 108.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 103.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…bf48backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 28c | 98.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 15c | 96.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 89.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 78.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 72c | 77.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 74.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1954…0166backed No | 71c | 67.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 65.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cc…c448backed Yes | 18c | 60.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 31c | 59.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 67c | 58.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 56.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 27c | 53.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed No | 73c | 52.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…798abacked Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 72c | 48.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf4…dc8dbacked Yes | 26c | 44.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…4785backed Yes | 25c | 44.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 25c | 43.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 37.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 66c | 36.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 80c | 35.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed No | 72c | 27.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed No | 73c | 26.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 25.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 77c | 24.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 21.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 21.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…ef70backed No | 70c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked No | 67c | 19.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 78c | 19.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 73c | 18.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a89…0e5dbacked No | 70c | 15.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 80c | 14.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.