Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcb138050d5e60c0d926dc797111fd96667499f451b762f43c38d392c46a918d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 419.89$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 410.74$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed Yes | 41c | 399.73$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.27 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 301.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.15 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 36c | 300$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 69c | 246.91$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 38c | 225.55$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 190$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 37c | 178.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 50c | 138.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 31c | 124.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 33c | 119.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 30c | 105.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 30c | 105.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 103.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 102.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 101.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed43…9f9cbacked No | 59c | 85.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 21c | 73.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 35c | 73.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 71.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 24c | 68.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 57c | 66.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 71c | 66.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 57.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 71c | 56.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 52.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 32c | 47.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 25c | 47.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 62c | 44.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 43.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 42.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…5712backed Yes | 38c | 39.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 76c | 39.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 78c | 38.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 33c | 37.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 36c | 36.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 64c | 35.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 34c | 34.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 48c | 31.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 69c | 30.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 29.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 58c | 28.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 56c | 28.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 27.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 69c | 27.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 26.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 24.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 60c | 23.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…773dbacked No | 76c | 20.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed No | 67c | 14.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C or higher on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.