Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4da7a76cf920af101126ef05a71b9053863530abf67dda0fc0b33969a95d2586
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 658.54$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.49 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed43…9f9cbacked No | 56c | 493.26$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed Yes | 41c | 406.63$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.3 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 48c | 369.43$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.18 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 73c | 367.69$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.84 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 60c | 364.85$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.67 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 322.87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 294.5$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.88 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 59c | 284.07$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 221$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 39c | 219.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.34 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 47c | 209.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 25c | 204.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 56c | 200.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 50c | 199.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 37c | 198.46$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.03 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed Yes | 38c | 198.46$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.05 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 190.17$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 178.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 173.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 66c | 165.46$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 75c | 153.96$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 35c | 150.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0a…7f1bbacked Yes | 41c | 144.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 66c | 143.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 44c | 137.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.84 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 22c | 133.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 125.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 79c | 120.25$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eee…d015backed Yes | 75c | 119.71$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 115.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 44c | 109.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 57c | 106.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 24c | 96.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 89.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 88.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 52c | 86.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 37c | 86.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 54c | 86.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 41c | 86.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 86.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 35c | 83.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 34c | 82.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 76.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 41c | 73.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 53c | 69.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 36c | 68.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 65.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 49c | 61.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 59.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 43c | 57.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 56.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 72c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 52c | 53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 36c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 56c | 50.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 52c | 49.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 46.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…5712backed Yes | 33c | 46.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 70c | 45.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 45.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6d…7a04backed Yes | 70c | 44.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 43.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 35c | 42.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 41.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 56c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 57c | 38.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 49c | 34.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…cd99backed Yes | 72c | 34.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 59c | 34.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 45c | 33.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 62c | 32.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 42c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 57c | 31.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 57c | 30.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 55c | 29.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 28.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23db…cf1cbacked Yes | 48c | 26.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 63c | 25.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 52c | 24.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…730cbacked Yes | 65c | 22.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 45c | 22.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 49c | 20.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C or higher on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.