Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $30 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd12c1bd250b7410f828b1cdb014d369c3f894d405074f84f48552a7fa8152a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $324,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $318,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $324,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d54…e1f8backed Yes | 1c | 31,062$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.02 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +1,064.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cf…8d9ebacked Yes | 1c | 28,859$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 1c | 23,513$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…46d1backed Yes | 1c | 8,499$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…c8a7backed Yes | 1c | 7,942$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 5,875$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…6960backed Yes | 1c | 4,596$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…dfcdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…78c8backed Yes | 1c | 3,874$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…f67dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,320$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 0c | 2,772$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…40f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,731$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…a99ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,204$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 1c | 2,054$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,952$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…829fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,914$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…64aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,815$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209d…43cebacked Yes | 1c | 1,792$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…c312backed Yes | 1c | 1,042$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd66a…d5a6backed Yes | 2c | 933.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43af…7923backed Yes | 1c | 842.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $30 in March?this page
- Will Solana dip to $10 in March?No won
- Will Solana dip to $20 in March?No won
- Will Solana dip to $40 in March?No won
- Will Solana dip to $50 in March?No won
- Will Solana dip to $60 in March?No won
- Will Solana dip to $70 in March?No won
- Will Solana dip to $80 in March?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $100 in March?No won
- Will Solana reach $110 in March?No won
- Will Solana reach $120 in March?No won
- Will Solana reach $130 in March?No won
- Will Solana reach $140 in March?No won
- Will Solana reach $150 in March?No won
- Will Solana reach $160 in March?No won
- Will Solana reach $90 in March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.