Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $40 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1ebdaff36b8e1580e735d0f63217ee03c42b0ce38150f03d4ddd59e1526f018
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $331,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $256,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $331,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d54…e1f8backed Yes | 1c | 43,995$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.86 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +1,064.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 3c | 36,282$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cf…8d9ebacked Yes | 4c | 15,054$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1087…013bbacked Yes | 4c | 13,802$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.07 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 10,600$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…c8a7backed Yes | 4c | 7,850$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 6,265$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…a99ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,910$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,871$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 4,606$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 3,691$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 2c | 3,283$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…aababacked Yes | 1c | 2,914$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 11cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…829fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,819$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 4c | 2,300$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…6960backed Yes | 2c | 2,256$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,196$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,054$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…f67dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,051$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 3c | 1,853$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,415$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66a…d5a6backed Yes | 4c | 1,294$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4a…5a75backed Yes | 3c | 1,279$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,184$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 1,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…5885backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…64aebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 915.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 2c | 889.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb803…b265backed Yes | 1c | 862.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed Yes | 2c | 805.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xade3…3b44backed Yes | 4c | 714.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 672.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 4c | 604.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 575$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…dd23backed Yes | 3c | 458.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 441.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 414.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 3c | 360$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…83cfbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $40 in March?this page
- Will Solana dip to $10 in March?No won
- Will Solana dip to $20 in March?No won
- Will Solana dip to $30 in March?No won
- Will Solana dip to $50 in March?No won
- Will Solana dip to $60 in March?No won
- Will Solana dip to $70 in March?No won
- Will Solana dip to $80 in March?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $100 in March?No won
- Will Solana reach $110 in March?No won
- Will Solana reach $120 in March?No won
- Will Solana reach $130 in March?No won
- Will Solana reach $140 in March?No won
- Will Solana reach $150 in March?No won
- Will Solana reach $160 in March?No won
- Will Solana reach $90 in March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.