Dota2 · resolved market
Team Falcons to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd438d4196990de909e7d8db8076a35db707645f769c9fdcf199cb4ceab95fd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 17c | 2,713$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.41 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 10c | 2,707$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.19 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe705…f910backed No | 40c | 2,184$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.43 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 59c | 2,130$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.83 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed No | 40c | 1,851$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.61 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 21c | 1,295$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.51 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…4acdbacked No | 42c | 973.75$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.77 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…db99backed Yes | 59c | 901.73$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.71 | 363 | 43.3%157 W · 206 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Yes | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Yes | 57c | 856.52$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.87 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…da4fbacked Yes | 62c | 484.68$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.68 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Yes | 66c | 438.3$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.02 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…4ecbbacked Yes | 51c | 393$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.57 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…8118backed No | 43c | 349.93$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Yes | 60c | 315$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.15 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 69c | 297.08$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.62 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 65c | 288.33$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.41 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e0…6ec6backed Yes | 59c | 235.19$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.69 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed No | 43c | 232.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c14…370dbacked Yes | 59c | 226.36$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.81 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…de16backed Yes | 67c | 204.43$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed No | 41c | 167.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…b7babacked Yes | 57c | 162.89$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 36c | 100.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Yes | 60c | 94.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked No | 11c | 93.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 33c | 82.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 74c | 81.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes | 59c | 59.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 43c | 57.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 62c | 49.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9df…401dbacked Yes | 64c | 46.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…6aa1backed No | 40c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Yes | 39c | 45.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Yes | 52c | 37.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…b241backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Team Falcons to win 2-0?this page
- GamerLegion to win 2-0?No won
- GamerLegion vs Team Falcons: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.