NBA · resolved market
Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 26.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd4bf38cf480ec6746762a692e25a09851b533b7e2a9d88b677dfe813d6e4ba4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Yes | 49c | 2,883$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.79 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 53c | 1,464$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.89 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 47c | 1,255$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.41 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes | 51c | 548.08$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.52 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 49c | 490.77$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.37 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed No | 52c | 247.79$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.98 | 487 | 51.7%252 W · 235 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked No | 47c | 242.05$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.29 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 51c | 172.77$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e2…0f50backed Yes | 49c | 118.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked No | 50c | 116.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 270 | 59.6%161 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Yes | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 49c | 99.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 52c | 97.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 53c | 92.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cca…3c3bbacked Yes | 51c | 89.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…6ee4backed Yes | 50c | 80.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked No | 53c | 77.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6472…81e3backed Yes | 50c | 65.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed No | 48c | 59.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 302 | 56.6%171 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed No | 49c | 43.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…44d3backed Yes | 48c | 32.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 284 | 55.3%157 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Yes | 51c | 26.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Yes | 51c | 24.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 387 | 51.2%198 W · 189 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes | 51c | 24.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…12a6backed Yes | 51c | 21.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked No | 56c | 21.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…b30ebacked Yes | 51c | 20.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 26.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
- 76ers vs. CelticsCeltics won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5Under won
- Adem Bona: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Andre Drummond: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Paul George: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Quentin Grimes: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-13.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-17.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-19.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-21.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-23.5)Celtics won
- Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 14.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.