UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbda5772d39e30e701410c5fca71544243140ec4ca7e310c8fca3d93e9955e1cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 50c | 9,539$4,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,759.1 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Over | 48c | 7,171$3,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,441.47 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c8…3c52backed Over | 48c | 7,143$3,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,428.58 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 50c | 5,498$2,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,748.82 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Under | 50c | 4,900$2,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,469 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 52c | 4,312$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,082.22 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked Over | 49c | 2,830$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.19 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 52c | 2,152$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.2 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 51c | 1,021$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.29 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Over | 51c | 700$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 46c | 385$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.1 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…b9f5backed Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…b591backed Under | 54c | 309.26$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.26 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Under | 54c | 304.18$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 51c | 190.37$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 51c | 135$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed Under | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 241 | 61.8%149 W · 92 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 45.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 51c | 40.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…f7a1backed Over | 51c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 47c | 27.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 27.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 51c | 21.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…585dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Juliana Miller vs. Ravena Oliveira (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)Juliana Miller won
- Will Ravena Oliveira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.