NFL · resolved market
Spread: Raiders (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdb4c99a3d6f621d83e7699c158d2c33107d6e8f57f246e195642993a81be054
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raidersof Raiders, Titans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Titans | 50c | 29,427$14,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,649.69 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Raiders | 50c | 24,378$12,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,189 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Titans | 49c | 19,990$9,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,795.33 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Raiders | 51c | 15,800$8,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,742 | 181 | 40.9%74 W · 107 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa4…e9d2backed Raiders | 50c | 9,786$4,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,892.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Raiders | 51c | 7,500$3,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,675 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Titans | 50c | 3,997$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Titans | 43c | 2,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Raiders | 50c | 1,746$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa472…45aebacked Raiders | 49c | 1,690$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.05 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Titans | 49c | 1,610$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.13 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Titans | 49c | 1,584$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.31 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Raiders | 51c | 1,409$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.41 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Raiders | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.61 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Titans | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Titans | 50c | 899.98$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.99 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Titans | 49c | 701.45$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.71 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Titans | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Titans | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Raiders | 50c | 594$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Raiders | 50c | 436.5$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.25 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…d7ccbacked Raiders | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Raiders | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Titans | 50c | 290.16$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.13 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Raiders | 51c | 288.24$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.24 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Raiders | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Raiders | 50c | 232.76$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.38 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Titans | 49c | 210$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Raiders | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Raiders | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Raiders | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Titans | 50c | 170$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Titans | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Raiders | 51c | 160$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Titans | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Raiders | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Raiders | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Raiders | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Titans | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Titans | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Raiders | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Raiders | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Raiders | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Raiders | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…a079backed Raiders | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raiders | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Titans | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Titans | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Titans | 49c | 36.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29dc…75dabacked Raiders | 63c | 34.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Titans | 37c | 34.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Titans | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…379bbacked Raiders | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Raiders | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Titans | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…70e6backed Raiders | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raiders (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Raiders (-4.5)Raiders won
- Titans vs. RaidersRaiders won
- Titans vs. Raiders: O/U 41.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.