TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,372
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,289

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,372 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes40c1,271$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.261,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No48c356$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.255,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes38c334.5$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.9310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes42c249.13$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.58,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No25c240.25$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.934,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes65c203.48$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.418943.8%39 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12071649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes76c196.1$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.766,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No60c175$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1054,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No61c171.32$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes45c167.43$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.975,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No62c141.48$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.083,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes48c127.84$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b4d…dd64backed Yes40c125.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.721145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+70.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes79c125.69$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.245764.9%37 W · 20 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No58c121$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1863757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No55c109.61$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.561,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No11c101$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.415,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c100.44$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.265,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a86…9f83backed Yes80c100.13$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.138476.2%64 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed Yes41c98.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0621052.4%110 W · 100 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes37c91.15$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.431,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No52c90.65$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1760054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes33c90.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.5564446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No29c81.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.452,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes35c80$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.460739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes40c80$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4840535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No19c79.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.721,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No61c78$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.972,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes40c77.14$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9733746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c76.48$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.669,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes36c75$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.671,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes43c70.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.241,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed Yes39c70$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5544465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No61c65.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9968867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa9…6a4fbacked Yes72c63.95$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.941060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb901…9fc4backed Yes70c63.47$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1311883.9%99 W · 19 L+34.3wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+63.4%equal weight77+0.24 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes39c61.89$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0658358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No66c58.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.422,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb968…4b8ebacked Yes78c56.46$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.421936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No52c55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.651,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes70c55$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes37c54.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1362137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes31c53.63$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No63c52.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3119648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes38c52.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4580130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No60c52.18$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3527056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes43c51.46$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3363538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.53,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes38c49.59$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.553,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No42c49.23$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.824,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No58c47.38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4883459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x376c…41acbacked Yes43c47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.794533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No32c46.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.891,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c44.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.034,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.457747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x584d…4fbfbacked Yes38c35.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.232142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes77c35.6$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0621964.8%142 W · 77 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No58c35.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5288973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47fc…c32abacked Yes43c35.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.982725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No62c34.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6764859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes58c34.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7432958.7%193 W · 136 L+17.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No61c32.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed Yes75c31.73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9312564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd13e…577ebacked Yes70c31.73$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d82…9e66backed Yes71c31.58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0712046.7%56 W · 64 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes38c31.32$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.321,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes40c31.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.812,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No63c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5399571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb56c…30f3backed Yes49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.310455.8%58 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes41c27.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5120842.8%89 W · 119 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No65c27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.651,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae92…329ebacked Yes43c26.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.022450%12 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe44…5d00backed Yes77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6510345.6%47 W · 56 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No61c24.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.11,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No52c23.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.324,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82cc…d569backed No63c23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5911173%81 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f4c…a2c1backed Yes78c22.58$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.971855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes67c21.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.171,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No60c20.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.37,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.854547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes63c18.46$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7752446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2613…3dccbacked Yes79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.151877.8%14 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.