TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,077
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,986

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,077 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes44c1,575$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.881,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No37c919.13$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.922,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No56c422.51$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.872,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No56c400$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2244,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes46c365.23$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.615,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed Yes55c344.82$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.8438860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb901…9fc4backed Yes61c333.88$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.8811883.9%99 W · 19 L+34.3wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+63.4%equal weight77+0.24 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No54c260.62$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.773,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No32c239.59$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.944,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x476e…00a9backed Yes46c229.1$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.719345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No36c214.65$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82df…0f66backed Yes67c209.4$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.236989.9%62 W · 7 L+25.3wins+0.37per pick53cpaid+111%equal weight80+0.27 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No19c208.48$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.956,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa61f…fa82backed No7c180$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2545.6%3 W · 51 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No56c163$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.285,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes67c146.65$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4941331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe783…50bbbacked No35c143.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No38c143.06$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.034,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No53c134.05$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0583360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17bd…f0babacked Yes70c130.63$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1711250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No25c126.78$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.354,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes45c112.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.212,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No57c108.94$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.242,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes52c108.68$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6947136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes67c103.67$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4639346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No56c96$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.769,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No58c90$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.227461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No57c87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018565.4%121 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes43c81$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5728344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No34c78.53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.72,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes68c72.18$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1853951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes44c71.01$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0122937.1%85 W · 144 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6780…41ccbacked Yes53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.927051.1%138 W · 132 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c70…6854backed Yes44c64.73$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.25475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+94.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes52c63.21$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.116,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes73c60.09$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2228441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x39be…aac9backed Yes46c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.43855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No49c55.12$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2785049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb777…a722backed No56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287852.6%41 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.516148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes55c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6233962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.521950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed No56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2814745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed No56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aa8…5e72backed No56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285137.3%19 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked No56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2817255.2%95 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes45c44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.246148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes46c43.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.821,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No57c42.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2994552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No57c42.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes24c42.21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.081,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca84…6f8dbacked Yes43c41.66$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.614450%22 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cee…c1a6backed Yes74c40.73$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.245,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes59c36.08$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.842,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No55c35.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes42c33.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.282,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcff…8aa4backed Yes61c32.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes52c32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4666758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x846b…63b6backed Yes65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.775343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc756…0ec3backed Yes49c30.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5913266.7%88 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked No76c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.820173.1%147 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick74cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes69c29.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.166648.5%32 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes49c28.73$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6561629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked No56c27.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3941966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed No37c27.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011519.1%22 W · 93 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-26.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd594…9d1bbacked Yes42c26.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.654245.2%19 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes45c26.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8842148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes45c23.71$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0920144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes65c23.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1965353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac71…f74cbacked Yes58c23.39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.878962.9%56 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f9f…799cbacked Yes65c23.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.081546.7%7 W · 8 L-3.8wins-0.25per pick72cpaid-35.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x27bd…5452backed Yes45c23$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.65911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-75.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No55c23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.651,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe054…15f7backed Yes46c22.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.36425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-45.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes60c22.17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.891,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes68c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.065466.7%36 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes55c20.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.342,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb218…6261backed No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.126850%34 W · 34 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1086952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7274…c205backed Yes53c19.23$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1221361%130 W · 83 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6784…7565backed No57c18.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.546451.6%33 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36a2…b8fabacked No64c16.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.662560%15 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92e7…abe3backed Yes70c14.29$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.29475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.