Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe0b3cf8d126a006e24ca8bc468147f73b10e48a522cb07f2f867138dab6bc1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 1,575$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.88 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 919.13$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.92 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 422.51$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 365.23$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 55c | 344.82$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.84 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 61c | 333.88$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.88 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 260.62$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.77 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 239.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 46c | 229.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.71 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 214.65$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 67c | 209.4$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 208.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed No | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 163$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 67c | 146.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe783…50bbbacked No | 35c | 143.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 38c | 143.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 53c | 134.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked Yes | 70c | 130.63$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 126.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 112.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 108.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 52c | 108.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 67c | 103.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 57c | 87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 43c | 81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 34c | 78.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 68c | 72.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 44c | 71.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…6854backed Yes | 44c | 64.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 63.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 73c | 60.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 55.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 46c | 43.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 57c | 42.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 42.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 24c | 42.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked Yes | 43c | 41.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…c1a6backed Yes | 74c | 40.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 36.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 55c | 35.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 33.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcff…8aa4backed Yes | 61c | 32.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 49c | 30.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 69c | 29.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 49c | 28.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 56c | 27.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked Yes | 42c | 26.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 45c | 26.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 45c | 23.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 65c | 23.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Yes | 58c | 23.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9f…799cbacked Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27bd…5452backed Yes | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe054…15f7backed Yes | 46c | 22.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 60c | 22.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 55c | 20.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 57c | 18.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…b8fabacked No | 64c | 16.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e7…abe3backed Yes | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.