TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

AJ Green: Points O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,590
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,294

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,590 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3f2f…be86backed No57c2,000$1,140 inLost-$1,14013357.9%77 W · 56 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a10…543cbacked Yes43c2,000$860 inWon+$1,1402962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Yes45c1,068$481 inWon+$587.41,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Yes45c866.67$390 inWon+$476.6754246.7%253 W · 289 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Yes29c209.97$60 inWon+$150.041,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No53c97.87$52 inLost-$51.871,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4794…d6e5backed Yes47c97.87$46 inWon+$51.875149%25 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Yes45c54.66$25 inWon+$30.0695548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed No71c42$30 inLost-$29.8280440.3%324 W · 480 L+27.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed No71c38$27 inLost-$26.9833030.9%102 W · 228 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed No71c38$27 inLost-$26.9821242%89 W · 123 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x376d…bc1bbacked No71c28.16$20 inLost-$19.999869.4%68 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked No71c22$16 inLost-$15.6278639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed No71c20$14 inLost-$14.245544.8%204 W · 251 L+21.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6dd…c6b6backed No75c15$11 inLost-$11.22045%9 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.