NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bucks (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9abf5f9f73172184e519468fb145d13a8f09e770af84013ab09550275bf52531

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bucksof Bucks, Mavericks
Resolved: Apr 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $51,852
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $53,966

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,852 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5746…5d0ebacked Mavericks	39c	16,893$6,507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,507.39	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	44cpaid	+41.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f9a…31e0backed Mavericks	44c	4,484$1,980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,979.81	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks	64c	2,796$1,793 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,003.23	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bba…a6eebacked Mavericks	48c	1,536$738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$738.01	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x569e…2ab5backed Mavericks	47c	1,185$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$552.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x128f…db9dbacked Bucks	60c	900$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$360	206	51.5%106 W · 100 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa244…470dbacked Mavericks	47c	726.81$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.26	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-17%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Mavericks	46c	656.65$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.55	228	36.4%83 W · 145 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca5…e6c9backed Bucks	47c	640$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$339.2	112	56.3%63 W · 49 L	+9.0wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf35…b5eabacked Bucks	30c	614.58$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$430.21	132	39.4%52 W · 80 L	-8.7wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Bucks	37c	612.13$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$386.34	443	52.4%232 W · 211 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks	53c	574.22$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.23	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Mavericks	52c	538.9$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.23	1,282	43.4%557 W · 725 L	-51.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d78…7b8dbacked Mavericks	54c	499.99$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.99	77	54.5%42 W · 35 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Mavericks	65c	466.46$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.53	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Mavericks	57c	379$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.63	66	43.9%29 W · 37 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63cb…65c0backed Mavericks	47c	300.23$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.81	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.23per pick	43cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Mavericks	69c	290.85$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.82	142	43%61 W · 81 L	-7.8wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks	46c	286.05$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.27	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Bucks	32c	258.39$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.22	1,036	47.6%493 W · 543 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3af5…caebbacked Mavericks	69c	235.53$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.65	118	50%59 W · 59 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Mavericks	53c	226.62$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.11	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Mavericks	54c	226$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.04	357	47.1%168 W · 189 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc607…bf25backed Mavericks	44c	226$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.21	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Mavericks	56c	203.47$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.79	1,271	38.3%487 W · 784 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x481c…01fbbacked Mavericks	41c	193.39$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.41	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Mavericks	60c	172.77$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.37	143	59.4%85 W · 58 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Bucks	46c	129.02$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.67	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc17d…2134backed Mavericks	65c	128.95$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.51	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	+1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Bucks	45c	102.99$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.66	410	38%156 W · 254 L	-16.8wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Mavericks	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.67	620	47.3%293 W · 327 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Bucks	51c	89.73$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.03	656	30.2%198 W · 458 L	-86.7wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Bucks	61c	81.48$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.65	163	69.9%114 W · 49 L	+18.6wins	+0.11per pick	59cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Bucks	52c	75.15$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.99	445	51.2%228 W · 217 L	+11.6wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Bucks	48c	72.67$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.79	414	49.3%204 W · 210 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Bucks	48c	72.67$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.79	716	54.1%387 W · 329 L	+21.1wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Bucks	48c	72.67$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.79	564	47.9%270 W · 294 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9619…4b7abacked Mavericks	50c	69$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.32	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0c…51dbbacked Bucks	48c	68.75$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.75	49	28.6%14 W · 35 L	-8.7wins	-0.18per pick	46cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Mavericks	39c	65.28$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.22	1,132	17%192 W · 940 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Bucks	58c	62.67$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.37	89	37.1%33 W · 56 L	+7.9wins	+0.09per pick	28cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Bucks	54c	58.34$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.96	906	50.2%455 W · 451 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Mavericks	50c	57.76$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.88	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Mavericks	38c	53.12$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.08	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Bucks	35c	49.86$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.41	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf421…2e3abacked Bucks	48c	48.96$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.46	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a4b…acdbbacked Mavericks	54c	46.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.87	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Mavericks	40c	46$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	492	47.2%232 W · 260 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Mavericks	52c	45.84$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.84	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Bucks	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Bucks	42c	38.03$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Mavericks	40c	37$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	407	50.6%206 W · 201 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Mavericks	49c	34$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.66	59	13.6%8 W · 51 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Mavericks	51c	33.12$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.95	290	55.5%161 W · 129 L	+15.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Bucks	58c	33.09$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.83	516	47.5%245 W · 271 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf986…6833backed Mavericks	50c	31.61$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.7	98	50%49 W · 49 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f6e…6a74backed Mavericks	64c	31.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	216	51.4%111 W · 105 L	-12.5wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Bucks	59c	30.32$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.43	545	49.5%270 W · 275 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e27…acccbacked Mavericks	42c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Bucks	35c	29.38$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.1	1,399	46.4%649 W · 750 L	-13.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Mavericks	38c	27.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	553	16.5%91 W · 462 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x920b…c3d4backed Mavericks	53c	27.12$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.38	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.5wins	-0.32per pick	57cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Mavericks	53c	26.2$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.84	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc510…065dbacked Bucks	60c	24.49$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.82	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+73.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Bucks	48c	23.71$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.33	1,084	50%542 W · 542 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…72ebbacked Bucks	48c	23.71$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.33	50	48%24 W · 26 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Bucks	48c	23.71$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.33	1,286	50.8%653 W · 633 L	+11.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Bucks	48c	23.71$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.33	570	51.9%296 W · 274 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf488…0261backed Bucks	51c	21.71$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.64	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5236…6fb6backed Bucks	51c	21.53$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.55	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+61.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Mavericks	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c42…bfaebacked Mavericks	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	108	42.6%46 W · 62 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3820…e0aabacked Mavericks	61c	19.16$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.61per pick	61cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c15…c14cbacked Bucks	54c	18.57$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.54	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+62%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks	59c	18.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.81	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Bucks (-3.5)this page
AJ Green: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
Bobby Portis: Points O/U 16.5No won
Brandon Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Brandon Williams: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 19.5No won
Kyle Kuzma: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Mavericks vs. BucksBucks won
Mavericks vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
Mavericks vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5Over won
Max Christie: Points O/U 16.5No won
Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Bucks won
Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Bucks won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bucks (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event