NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Bucks: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd54325c9e2441e1186f9dd31f8cbb64d81b05b542f0cc909b18c9cf49644ff29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Mavericks, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Mavericks | 48c | 739.99$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.2 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…025abacked Bucks | 47c | 645.57$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…4677backed Bucks | 43c | 504.71$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks | 62c | 349.18$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.67 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bucks | 52c | 313.49$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…a6eebacked Bucks | 46c | 299.44$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…4b7abacked Mavericks | 18c | 271.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2594…cc26backed Bucks | 50c | 236.72$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc607…bf25backed Bucks | 25c | 227.35$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63cb…65c0backed Bucks | 66c | 196.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…01fbbacked Bucks | 50c | 135.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Mavericks | 53c | 111$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…03c5backed Mavericks | 26c | 110.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f06…e4f2backed Bucks | 50c | 107.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…470dbacked Bucks | 50c | 107.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…a103backed Bucks | 48c | 105.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…0b85backed Bucks | 52c | 105.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -15.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Bucks | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Mavericks | 24c | 74.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +24.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…f632backed Mavericks | 50c | 71.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bucks | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Mavericks | 35c | 52.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…9442backed Mavericks | 39c | 51.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…4046backed Mavericks | 40c | 49.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Mavericks | 51c | 49.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 327 | 47.4%155 W · 172 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks | 52c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6076…b218backed Mavericks | 39c | 35.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Bucks | 57c | 33.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Bucks: 1H Moneylinethis page
- AJ Green: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Bobby Portis: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Brandon Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Brandon Williams: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Kyle Kuzma: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Mavericks vs. BucksBucks won
- Mavericks vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5Over won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.