NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe4147b42f4dca2d841424f98b108f0fcfc9f4d831d9cc7a9cb35b6a44b814a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Pelicans, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 46c | 8,710$3,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,965.41 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans | 54c | 7,518$4,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,430.82 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…53dabacked Wizards | 45c | 3,680$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 55c | 3,057$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Pelicans | 55c | 1,558$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.16 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Pelicans | 51c | 1,210$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.9 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Pelicans | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans | 55c | 969.57$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.47 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 44c | 905.42$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.59 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Wizards | 45c | 800$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb75…2cdfbacked Wizards | 45c | 450$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Pelicans | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards | 46c | 233.02$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Wizards | 45c | 225$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Pelicans | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Wizards | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Pelicans | 55c | 160$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…2b2ebacked Wizards | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Wizards | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Wizards | 46c | 93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Pelicans | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d2…22fbbacked Pelicans | 57c | 87.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Pelicans | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Pelicans | 55c | 84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Pelicans | 55c | 84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Pelicans | 55c | 84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Pelicans | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Wizards | 46c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Pelicans | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Wizards | 44c | 69.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 45c | 68.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Pelicans | 55c | 66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Pelicans | 55c | 66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Pelicans | 55c | 66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Pelicans | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Pelicans | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…18dfbacked Pelicans | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Wizards | 44c | 56.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Pelicans | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Wizards | 39c | 43.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Pelicans | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Pelicans | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Pelicans | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Pelicans | 55c | 36.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Pelicans | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Pelicans | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Pelicans | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Pelicans | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Pelicans | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Pelicans | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 220 | 48.6%107 W · 113 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Pelicans | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Pelicans | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Pelicans | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Pelicans | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Pelicans | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Pelicans | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Pelicans | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Pelicans | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Pelicans | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Pelicans | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Pelicans | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Pelicans | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Pelicans | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Pelicans | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Pelicans | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Pelicans | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Pelicans | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Pelicans | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)this page
- Pelicans vs. WizardsPelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Wizards: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.