NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c368f200e5c2a74c37087475888734ce23996eec5b0a502eabbc6dc9b86dde4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Pelicans, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 47c | 810.54$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e68…3215backed Wizards | 53c | 673.58$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Pelicans | 48c | 628.85$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 46c | 516.65$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.86 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…41ccbacked Wizards | 52c | 471.19$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.02 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Wizards | 53c | 420$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.6 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Pelicans | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Wizards | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Pelicans | 62c | 384.24$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.24 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Wizards | 38c | 322.94$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.72 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pelicans | 47c | 278.02$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.35 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…a470backed Wizards | 53c | 264.15$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Pelicans | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Pelicans | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Wizards | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Pelicans | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Pelicans | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Pelicans | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Wizards | 50c | 82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Pelicans | 47c | 61.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Pelicans | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Wizards | 51c | 57.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Wizards | 40c | 47.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked Pelicans | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Pelicans | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…5042backed Wizards | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 157 | 58%91 W · 66 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pelicans | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Pelicans | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…1bfabacked Wizards | 48c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Wizards | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)this page
- Pelicans vs. WizardsPelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Wizards: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.