Serie A · resolved market
SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe5c02fc8c08e268f355f657b91518e7b92489074143355170cacf8c2cf37edc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 53c | 1,451$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.9 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 1,398$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.41 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 384.98$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.14 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 28c | 315.05$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.15 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb817…bdc7backed Under | 49c | 287.47$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.19 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 72c | 273.11$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.64 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +9.4wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 22c | 256$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 393 | 54.2%213 W · 180 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 27c | 143.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.54 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…4e46backed Under | 73c | 133.54$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 41c | 120.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1da…23a3backed Under | 52c | 116.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…3418backed Under | 73c | 78.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 58c | 64.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 65c | 60.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef8a…7035backed Over | 79c | 59.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…8e23backed Over | 29c | 54.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e8…6edabacked Under | 54c | 54.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Under | 73c | 54.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 24c | 53.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 29c | 49.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 23c | 45.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 28c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Under | 73c | 33.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 53c | 30.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…f8b9backed Under | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under | 57c | 23.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…03bebacked Under | 73c | 20.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 73c | 19.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Over | 77c | 19.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…5336backed Over | 79c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5this page
- SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)SSC Napoli won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5)SSC Napoli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.