Serie A · resolved market
SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc83d9ff8ba0fe3888843549050e085f4cc40e39fd5eff2a9633108b2f1946fd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 7,317$3,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,438.16 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…9312backed Over | 46c | 4,238$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,934.78 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 40c | 1,680$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.99 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 1,674$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.34 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…26f7backed Over | 43c | 1,509$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 61c | 695.8$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.27 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 663.76$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.85 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 76c | 537.88$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.77 | 119 | 64.7%77 W · 42 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 30c | 516.03$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.77 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 37c | 515.03$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.48 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed Under | 73c | 404.91$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.79 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 12c | 342.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 326.84$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.09 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…4806backed Over | 60c | 325.71$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.19 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Over | 40c | 303.71$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.54 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…6d71backed Over | 74c | 266.05$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 29c | 250.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Under | 80c | 247.24$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed Over | 55c | 224.29$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.36 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 70c | 218.09$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.64 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 54c | 196.75$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 59c | 196.01$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.76 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 55c | 187.7$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb29a…bbdebacked Under | 40c | 174.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 56c | 173.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.33 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 74c | 133.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb817…bdc7backed Under | 77c | 128.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Under | 29c | 125.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7409backed Over | 50c | 123.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa203…11bcbacked Under | 54c | 108.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7718…4c1bbacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Under | 28c | 96.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 18c | 92.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 29c | 91.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 76c | 90.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Over | 21c | 88.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8562…ad77backed Under | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Over | 46c | 82.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 37c | 68.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 45c | 66.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 79c | 62.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed Over | 32c | 59.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Under | 44c | 59.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a5…7f75backed Over | 58c | 56.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 50c | 48.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…33f4backed Over | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 57c | 43.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 55c | 42.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Under | 56c | 41.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 37c | 39.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 55c | 38.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 62c | 37.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Over | 44c | 33.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 60c | 33.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 46c | 30.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Under | 46c | 26.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 77c | 24.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Under | 57c | 18.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed Under | 65c | 17.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…3ebdbacked Under | 74c | 17.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa18f…073fbacked Over | 65c | 15.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5this page
- SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)SSC Napoli won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5)SSC Napoli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.