TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Group C

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Aresof G2 Ares, Young Ninjas
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$152,963
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$178,913

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,963 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked G2 Ares46c21,325$9,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,550.615,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Young Ninjas55c19,672$10,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,793.7275652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb517…06ddbacked Young Ninjas35c11,208$3,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,901.386266.1%41 W · 21 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed G2 Ares46c8,139$3,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,354.692,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaf…d959backed G2 Ares45c5,087$2,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,797.93435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed G2 Ares41c4,664$1,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.865,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Young Ninjas54c3,711$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.9966851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed G2 Ares46c3,406$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,825.292,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bc8…09e5backed Young Ninjas57c2,742$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5732360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8efe…6704backed Young Ninjas55c2,552$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.2920562.4%128 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked G2 Ares46c2,135$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.381,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb1f…6a93backed Young Ninjas53c1,950$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.484839.6%19 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Young Ninjas33c1,851$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.622,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed G2 Ares42c1,846$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.3626155.2%144 W · 117 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Young Ninjas55c1,544$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.2757641.1%237 W · 339 L-21.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed G2 Ares69c1,458$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.532,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Young Ninjas75c1,375$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.2511758.1%68 W · 49 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed G2 Ares58c1,281$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5396,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd2…5bf0backed Young Ninjas53c1,201$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.421154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked G2 Ares40c1,160$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.4362738.8%243 W · 384 L-31.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked G2 Ares43c1,160$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.14,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed G2 Ares46c1,078$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.129449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b8f…2845backed Young Ninjas3c1,061$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85f8…fe20backed Young Ninjas53c999.98$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.991457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f9…4df8backed Young Ninjas54c999.97$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9818356.3%103 W · 80 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Young Ninjas55c976.4$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.457641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Young Ninjas7c955.97$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.855738.4%214 W · 343 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1032…4243backed Young Ninjas52c911.87$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.92231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed Young Ninjas52c903.21$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.6714051.4%72 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed Young Ninjas52c894.57$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.1819840.9%81 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x304f…af95backed Young Ninjas55c891.34$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.0823757%135 W · 102 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd23…387ebacked G2 Ares44c890.29$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.2229154%157 W · 134 L+17.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9a4…8427backed Young Ninjas53c883.58$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4666848.5%33 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed G2 Ares47c827.55$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.732,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Young Ninjas37c794.75$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.2680942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed G2 Ares38c790$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.15044%22 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Young Ninjas58c775.86$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4508361.4%51 W · 32 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked G2 Ares39c756.53$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.6719342.5%82 W · 111 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42dd…5d2bbacked Young Ninjas54c755.22$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.825442.6%23 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc746…3943backed G2 Ares55c747$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3397548%36 W · 39 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Young Ninjas64c727.41$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.5537145.6%169 W · 202 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf37…47fcbacked Young Ninjas54c699.95$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.478942.7%38 W · 51 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46de…84eabacked G2 Ares44c686.18$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.983627.8%10 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked G2 Ares67c651$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.263,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Young Ninjas52c629.98$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.7248240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Young Ninjas51c588.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9613234.8%46 W · 86 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbebf…51d8backed Young Ninjas61c571.15$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.237657.9%44 W · 32 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed Young Ninjas57c563.93$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.628951.7%46 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb74…997cbacked Young Ninjas51c534.92$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.961637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a11…ef8ebacked Young Ninjas53c528.54$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.133351.5%17 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x50e8…0105backed Young Ninjas53c517.6$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.376350.8%32 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae94…6b17backed G2 Ares43c512.03$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.3610551.4%54 W · 51 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed G2 Ares45c500.99$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.9947447.5%225 W · 249 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Young Ninjas53c500.52$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.492,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed G2 Ares38c499.95$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.941,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked G2 Ares46c499.71$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.37,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa5b…7650backed G2 Ares47c489.36$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.365628.6%16 W · 40 L-9.5wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-37.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb5ba…06b3backed G2 Ares49c485.72$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.4115045.3%68 W · 82 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed G2 Ares46c480.41$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.750051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f18…c075backed G2 Ares20c450$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3604045%18 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0241…fd36backed G2 Ares46c442.43$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.9140155.1%221 W · 180 L+1.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcef…fd7fbacked Young Ninjas52c442$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.1412846.1%59 W · 69 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2025…13c0backed Young Ninjas67c432$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.169964.6%64 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc666…8d00backed Young Ninjas55c429.65$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.2414450%72 W · 72 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed G2 Ares43c425.9$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.5631731.9%101 W · 216 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1c7…38e1backed G2 Ares45c424.91$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.75547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed Young Ninjas58c424.14$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.2214042.1%59 W · 81 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f4a…afd7backed G2 Ares48c419.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.8322740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Young Ninjas52c410$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.213053.8%70 W · 60 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e9…e343backed Young Ninjas63c401.47$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2543354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Young Ninjas53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21291945.8%421 W · 498 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661e…81d6backed G2 Ares41c399.73$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.951250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Young Ninjas15c395$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2517737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4704…515ebacked G2 Ares50c391.24$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.6237140.7%151 W · 220 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0e3…c760backed Young Ninjas52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007935.4%28 W · 51 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6c…d38ebacked Young Ninjas52c376$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.527940.5%32 W · 47 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d86…a6f9backed G2 Ares44c375.52$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.528651.2%44 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Young Ninjas53c372.99$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.3825252.8%133 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Young Ninjas52c367.62$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.7620856.3%117 W · 91 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed G2 Ares48c362.93$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.9337949.3%187 W · 192 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1be…6471backed G2 Ares45c355.56$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.5642757.8%247 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked G2 Ares47c352.43$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.7921146%97 W · 114 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42a7…96f9backed G2 Ares34c352.06$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.669047.8%43 W · 47 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed G2 Ares44c351$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.5610053%53 W · 47 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ca…fb01backed G2 Ares38c347.61$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.82035%7 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Young Ninjas51c345$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.9523732.9%78 W · 159 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e83…00aabacked Young Ninjas52c324$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.4817142.1%72 W · 99 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd612…0477backed Young Ninjas63c319.99$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.593961.5%24 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked G2 Ares48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.522751.5%117 W · 110 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Young Ninjas57c312$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.845,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x206c…2b8dbacked Young Ninjas53c310$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.36744.8%30 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6712…a95bbacked Young Ninjas16c301.47$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4813938.1%53 W · 86 L-11.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed G2 Ares63c300.45$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.64052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked Young Ninjas51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1534654.3%25 W · 21 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4711…ce32backed G2 Ares44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1689736.1%35 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24eb…75eebacked Young Ninjas79c296$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.8418043.3%78 W · 102 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e99…0a26backed G2 Ares25c288$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2167643.4%33 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Young Ninjas52c287.75$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1440542%170 W · 235 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed G2 Ares47c275.17$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.8433553.4%179 W · 156 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed Young Ninjas55c275$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.2535153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.