Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbedd3d737af71873171cbbf48f6dbec32502b879579247dc65a92e502354f990
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 23c | 1,404$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.96 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 4c | 441.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 414.75$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 349.58$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 18c | 282.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 268.16$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 22c | 258.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 78c | 197.13$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 195.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 68c | 170.34$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 10c | 170$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 68c | 166.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 79c | 165$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 146.7$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 126.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 113.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 113.25$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 110.89$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 107.31$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 104$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 29c | 103.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…a7c3backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 94.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes | 29c | 91.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 72c | 82.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 21c | 82.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 81.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 79.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 73c | 75.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 75.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 17c | 71.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 61.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 22c | 55.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 32c | 54.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 48c | 51.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc997…44f1backed Yes | 37c | 48.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 72c | 48.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 22c | 45.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…a41ebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 74c | 33.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5b…2979backed No | 65c | 31.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 61c | 31.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 30.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 80c | 30.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 53c | 30.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 62c | 28.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 26.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 49c | 24.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 63c | 16.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or below on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.