Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or below on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc41725445e5e0008916588d50c631d61094b82a79b5e1c87a63f2e8ea4ceabc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 66c | 761.64$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…e0d4backed Yes | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed No | 15c | 608.64$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 30c | 600$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.58 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked No | 30c | 567.51$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.11 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 34c | 525.44$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 398.95$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 34c | 372.35$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.51 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 295.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 225.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 39c | 221.06$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.18 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 60c | 212.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 78c | 210.85$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 15c | 208.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 71c | 188.65$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked No | 44c | 187.18$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.79 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 37c | 172$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 40c | 170.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 40c | 169.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 164.7$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 10c | 157.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 60c | 157$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 146.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 16c | 146.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 59c | 141.41$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 20c | 133.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 40c | 116.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 113.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 44c | 111.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 43c | 110.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 31c | 102.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 55c | 102.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 69c | 101.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 40c | 95.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 24c | 91.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 37c | 90.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 24c | 89.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 72c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed No | 29c | 84.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 83.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 40c | 78.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa9…6a4fbacked No | 30c | 76.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 57c | 74.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 25c | 72.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcff…8aa4backed No | 42c | 69.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…1851backed Yes | 61c | 69.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 39c | 68.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 37c | 68.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 28c | 67.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 39c | 66.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed No | 34c | 64.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 39c | 62.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 57c | 61.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked No | 42c | 59.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 21c | 59.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 25c | 58.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 23c | 57.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 24c | 47.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d5…1b8abacked Yes | 64c | 46.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 59c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 45.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed No | 45c | 44.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 34c | 42.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 54c | 41.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…98bfbacked No | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 34c | 38.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 62c | 37.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 35.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 37c | 32.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 63c | 31.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 70c | 28.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 62c | 28.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 44c | 27.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 58c | 26.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 75c | 23.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 54c | 22.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 21.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…29fdbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 63c | 19.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 72c | 14.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or below on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.