Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf1813c24b4f64ea99c3996db2679d9b399bf0f336ade64e8085696410c303fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 36c | 862.9$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.57 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 69c | 817.66$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.46 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 48c | 724.66$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.22 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 687.3$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 32c | 621.4$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.19 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 44c | 619.34$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.34 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe18…3980backed Yes | 65c | 586.53$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 48cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 574.94$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed No | 39c | 552.08$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.3 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 55c | 546.63$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.37 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 540.41$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 28c | 458.89$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 458.6$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.42 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 33c | 430$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.05 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 31c | 392.23$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 306.7$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 49c | 279.88$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.14 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 48c | 250.33$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.03 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 226.36$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.63 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 38c | 223.28$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.6 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 38c | 221.1$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 78c | 207.1$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.54 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 48c | 205.2$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 42c | 196.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 40c | 196.34$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 196.02$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 52c | 192.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.37 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…69e7backed Yes | 56c | 191.53$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.49 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 187.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 50c | 179.79$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.55 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…5263backed Yes | 60c | 171.8$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 58c | 168.21$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 31c | 167.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 155$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc388…ed37backed Yes | 49c | 154$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…58adbacked Yes | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 147.11$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 28c | 144$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 36c | 141.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 128.87$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9110…c879backed No | 31c | 128.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.25 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…aab7backed Yes | 76c | 126.78$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 123.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 44c | 123.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.76 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 118.95$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 51c | 115.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 115$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…6216backed Yes | 44c | 113$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…60f4backed Yes | 10c | 110.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 56c | 109.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 106.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 105$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 26c | 102.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 15c | 99.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.94 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 97.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 94.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 39c | 91.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 28c | 89.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b2…615dbacked Yes | 40c | 86.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 84.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 50c | 80.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 56c | 79.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f92…520fbacked Yes | 66c | 75.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 64c | 74.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 74.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…e8c2backed Yes | 68c | 73.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 36c | 73.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 72.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 49c | 72.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 65c | 70.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 43c | 69.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 29c | 68.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 50c | 68.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 50c | 68.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 48c | 68.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 33c | 67.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 51c | 64.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 77c | 64.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 62.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 61.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 39c | 61.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 39c | 60.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…750abacked Yes | 50c | 60.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 60.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 40c | 59.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 51c | 58.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.