TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,472

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,051 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x302c…abcebacked Yes35c1,616$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.3816724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52a3…28c4backed Yes43c737.07$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.6520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-50.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No66c690.7$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.914,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes3c638.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.512,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c56…6e66backed Yes32c562.22$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.715349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No65c540.24$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.632,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes20c533.71$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1334533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes22c500$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.911,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No67c490.55$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.314,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec05…d8cdbacked Yes32c483.93$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.971850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No67c391$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.1112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No63c381.35$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.264,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a96…286bbacked Yes25c359.3$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.392437.5%9 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+122.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked No76c316.07$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6216543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No69c306.7$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.665,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes27c268.16$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8774926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cae…559abacked No54c253$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.382857.1%16 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes40c239.91$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.855,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes7c207.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.231,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7077555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No65c197$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.951,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes39c192.31$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54fc…4330backed Yes33c185.84$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.484344.2%19 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No71c175.85$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7192678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No64c151.63$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.83,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c149.94$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.74,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No65c149.26$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.523,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes15c145.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.071,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4eb…69e7backed Yes25c139.12$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.92437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes8c132.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4760519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No69c130.03$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0683459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c127.85$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.069,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes35c123.08$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes46c122.13$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.551,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes18c117.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.573,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e04…80babacked Yes28c114.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.386349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No69c114.52$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3540352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes14c110.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes35c102.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.051,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4023731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes18c97.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9640525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf1…e06bbacked Yes28c93.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.02837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes31c90.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2880130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes19c90$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3956048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No68c88$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1626256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes38c84.26$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.719737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes30c81.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4527047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f21…c693backed No63c79.96$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3813167.9%89 W · 42 L+15.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed Yes33c76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0829345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95e4…4e69backed No68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.531080%8 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No71c73.49$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.122,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes37c73.15$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273930.8%12 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No58c68.91$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.891,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No55c68.53$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7633746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b5…c988backed Yes42c66.77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.853630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No67c63$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7991444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes45c60.74$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3382742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes44c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.110547.6%50 W · 55 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No58c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.289557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e80…6910backed No77c59.96$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.875560%33 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No67c57$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8115666%103 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No69c56.4$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.672,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No59c56$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.962,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes44c55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.22,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No69c54.76$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.835264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No68c50.76$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.022,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabcd…6771backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207425.7%19 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7539427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1944646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1621950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-83.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No54c47.2$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7191861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked No52c46.43$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2913444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes36c45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3528344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No65c44.82$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.691,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes36c44.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1642148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes24c43.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.322,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes28c42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.763432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes40c41.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7470148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.21,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No75c37.68$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.393,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ac9…885cbacked No54c36.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.73742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed No68c36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5231564.8%204 W · 111 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45b3…5dc9backed No55c33.05$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.871154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked No78c33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2644945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes33c32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5617644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x31a4…dd86backed No76c31.7$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.688564.7%55 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2594066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No63c30.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2998565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No79c30.4$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.442,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc53…09e7backed Yes48c30.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.39837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.344536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.960550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.654253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.