Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa858cc38e5ae5464f6f57128636a8cda0e15dbd3696d8ffd933908aa4db806d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 35c | 1,616$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.38 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a3…28c4backed Yes | 43c | 737.07$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 690.7$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.91 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 638.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 32c | 562.22$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.71 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 540.24$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.63 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 20c | 533.71$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.13 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 22c | 500$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.91 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 490.55$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…d8cdbacked Yes | 32c | 483.93$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.97 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 391$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 381.35$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…286bbacked Yes | 25c | 359.3$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.39 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 76c | 316.07$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 306.7$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 27c | 268.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 54c | 253$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.38 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 239.91$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 7c | 207.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 197$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 39c | 192.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 33c | 185.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 175.85$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 151.63$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 149.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 149.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 15c | 145.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…69e7backed Yes | 25c | 139.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 8c | 132.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 69c | 130.03$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 127.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 123.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 46c | 122.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 117.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 28c | 114.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 69c | 114.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 14c | 110.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 35c | 102.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 18c | 97.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf1…e06bbacked Yes | 28c | 93.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 90.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 68c | 88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 38c | 84.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 30c | 81.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed No | 63c | 79.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 33c | 76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…4e69backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 73.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 37c | 73.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 68.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 55c | 68.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b5…c988backed Yes | 42c | 66.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 67c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 45c | 60.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed No | 77c | 59.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 67c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 69c | 56.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 69c | 54.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 50.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 54c | 47.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 52c | 46.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 44.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 36c | 44.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 24c | 43.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 40c | 41.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 37.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac9…885cbacked No | 54c | 36.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…5dc9backed No | 55c | 33.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 76c | 31.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 30.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 30.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…09e7backed Yes | 48c | 30.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.