Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c2bddbcfd69cdb924f831428a2b7e66926ff2a8d093a8441fcfb364684386db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 13c | 898.23$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.18 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 31c | 743.06$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.13 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 32c | 633.53$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.1 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 58c | 632.75$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.91 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 68c | 621.43$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.87 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 41c | 555.66$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.13 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 17c | 545$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.95 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…5263backed Yes | 29c | 461.19$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.61 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 22c | 427.39$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.9 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 78c | 392.2$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.66 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 14c | 347$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.78 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 13c | 334.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.11 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 17c | 321.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.17 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 314.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.43 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 280$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 68c | 250$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.93 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 16c | 247.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.24 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 12c | 244.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.46 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 238.78$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 75c | 226.22$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.05 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 20c | 218$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.12 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 79c | 210.56$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.45 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 46c | 202$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.1 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 62c | 179.63$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 15c | 178.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.49 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 31c | 158.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.91 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked No | 79c | 157.2$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.74 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 15c | 152.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.57 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 14c | 147.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.06 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 16c | 144.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.19 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 18c | 138$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 21c | 133$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.98 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 15c | 131.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.45 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 71c | 125.35$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 63c | 121.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 120$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed Yes | 16c | 118.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.05 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 23c | 118.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 115.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.89 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 55c | 115.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 11c | 110.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 19c | 104.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.09 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 79c | 100.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.16 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 22c | 99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 19c | 92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 18c | 90.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 45c | 88.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 21c | 78.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb2…d8d4backed Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 30c | 69.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 22c | 63.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 63.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 57.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 57.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 77c | 57.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 27c | 54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 36c | 53.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 78c | 47.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 46.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 24c | 45.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 29c | 43.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 72c | 43.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…9a6bbacked No | 73c | 41.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…a783backed No | 70c | 39.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked No | 64c | 33.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 80c | 28.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 75c | 26.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 25.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 50c | 25.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 22.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 80c | 19.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 75c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9481…b947backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 14.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x749c…6301backed No | 75c | 13.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.