TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,709
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,808

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,709 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes13c898.23$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.181,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3be7…ad70backed Yes31c743.06$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.1313411.9%16 W · 118 L+0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes32c633.53$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.12,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes58c632.75$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.9127079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No68c621.43$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.8766543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes41c555.66$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.1345130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked Yes17c545$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.958920.2%18 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5059…5263backed Yes29c461.19$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.613250%16 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes22c427.39$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.91,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No78c392.2$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.661,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes14c347$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.7863143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed Yes13c334.26$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.1126441.3%109 W · 155 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes17c321.8$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.1710134.7%35 W · 66 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes12c314.64$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.432,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes18c280$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.63,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No68c250$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.932,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes16c247.02$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.2457747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes12c244.77$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.4665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No80c238.78$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.064,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No75c226.22$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.0560054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes20c218$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.1216437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No79c210.56$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4511169.4%77 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes46c202$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.622853.6%15 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes10c200$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.139427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes62c179.63$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.056,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes15c178.01$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.4985330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5af3…1534backed Yes31c158.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.916854.4%37 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked No79c157.2$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7412927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked Yes15c152.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.577729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes14c147.74$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.0625135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes16c144.19$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.191,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No18c138$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.846219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes21c133$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.982,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes15c131.77$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.451,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…8e3cbacked No71c125.35$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.567862.8%49 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No63c121.25$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No72c120$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.84,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f24…64b5backed Yes16c118.59$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.054040%16 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes23c118.38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.1127246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes20c115.87$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.891,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No55c115.06$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.251,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes11c110.51$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.82,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes19c104.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.091,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No79c100.44$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0274926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7533962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No77c99.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1697152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes21c99.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4929732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes16c99.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7924732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes22c99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.8311724.8%29 W · 88 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes19c92$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5247738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No18c90.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.494,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes18c90$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54fc…4330backed Yes45c88.77$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.884344.2%19 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes21c78.57$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.071,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bb2…d8d4backed Yes13c77$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.992920.7%6 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes30c69.9$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9314250.7%72 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes22c63.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6437355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No79c63.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.193,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes24c60$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3322744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No74c57.94$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes26c57.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.66,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked No77c57.68$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2715553.5%83 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc2…4837backed No74c55$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.72263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes27c54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2166758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d41…24d7backed Yes36c53.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.178942.7%38 W · 51 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No77c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed No78c47.42$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3716157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No74c46.55$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcabe…b95bbacked Yes26c46$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.043053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes24c45.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4747239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes29c43.43$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9377151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes72c43.1$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.131,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b72…9a6bbacked No73c41.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301560%9 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e2…a783backed No70c39.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.455042%21 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No79c35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.593,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ca…59eebacked No64c33.3$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.265729.8%17 W · 40 L-11.6wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x3880…db44backed No73c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9217165.5%112 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes34c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.742849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No80c28.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.882,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No75c26.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7624164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No78c25.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.022,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No50c25.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.631,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No79c22.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.652,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.489951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4075…cd19backed No80c19.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.835265.4%34 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No79c18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.224,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No75c18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.411,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9481…b947backed No79c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8966.7%6 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick78cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No76c14.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.142,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x749c…6301backed No75c13.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.111741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No78c12.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0666944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.