MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf347a55b6fdff73b1d2c9de3a5175d7ee8e284caa823db5cabfbf89733b0a31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Athletics | 0c | 12,033$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics | 50c | 3,309$1,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.75 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 3,180$1,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.28 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas Rangers | 48c | 1,893$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.91 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 1,309$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.17 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Athletics | 60c | 1,231$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.73 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 1,200$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…2c9bbacked Athletics | 60c | 1,082$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.04 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Athletics | 50c | 1,010$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.89 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Texas Rangers | 70c | 722.83$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.7 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Texas Rangers | 48c | 592.69$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.41 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 50c | 571.98$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.39 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Texas Rangers | 60c | 498.26$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.26 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Athletics | 14c | 495$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Texas Rangers | 60c | 447.33$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.73 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Athletics | 60c | 325.94$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.56 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Athletics | 48c | 242.17$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Athletics | 59c | 239.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Texas Rangers | 48c | 207.4$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.85 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Athletics | 48c | 183.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.52 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 176.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Athletics | 51c | 164.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Athletics | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Athletics | 54c | 151.49$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Texas Rangers | 34c | 145.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 138.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.39 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Texas Rangers | 51c | 132.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Athletics | 41c | 132.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Athletics | 60c | 129.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…ee64backed Athletics | 76c | 129.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 59c | 128.94$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108c…122dbacked Athletics | 39c | 123.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Texas Rangers | 74c | 108.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Athletics | 60c | 102.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Athletics | 60c | 101.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Texas Rangers | 67c | 97.88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers | 54c | 94.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Athletics | 59c | 87.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Athletics | 43c | 77.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Texas Rangers | 28c | 75.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Texas Rangers | 50c | 74.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Athletics | 60c | 68.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 52c | 67.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Athletics | 60c | 66.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Athletics | 54c | 66.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Athletics | 62c | 65.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Athletics | 58c | 65.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…2e9dbacked Athletics | 73c | 64.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Texas Rangers | 55c | 62.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 62.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac9…f5ddbacked Texas Rangers | 43c | 55.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Athletics | 59c | 54.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Athletics | 58c | 52.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Athletics | 47c | 50.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Athletics | 48c | 50.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Athletics | 75c | 49.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 49.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…9765backed Athletics | 40c | 46.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Athletics | 50c | 45.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Athletics | 50c | 45.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Athletics | 65c | 43.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 41.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Athletics | 60c | 39.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Athletics | 71c | 35.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeafd…723fbacked Athletics | 60c | 32.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Athletics | 62c | 31.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Athletics | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Texas Rangers | 57c | 30.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Athletics | 60c | 29.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -10.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Athletics | 40c | 25.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Texas Rangers | 60c | 23.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Athletics | 60c | 20.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2e…289dbacked Athletics | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Texas Rangers | 62c | 18.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f43…01a8backed Athletics | 60c | 18.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01dc…183ebacked Athletics | 72c | 16.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x723d…05d7backed Texas Rangers | 71c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.