Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf560b75de099cc4c05e9122e32d77ff3da70456194b0be73be4377545a24d52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 46c | 1,400$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.98 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 45c | 1,139$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.54 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 510.93$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 458.11$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 43c | 301$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.51 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 54c | 281$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.26 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 55c | 263.27$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.47 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 5c | 249.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 37c | 211.19$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 210.91$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 198.27$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 56c | 186.87$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 54c | 151$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 75c | 120.74$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 106$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 59c | 101.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 91.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked No | 80c | 90.37$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…7bfcbacked No | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 88.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 87.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 53c | 58.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 56c | 55.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 42c | 51.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 62c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 76c | 44.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 42.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 61c | 31.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd464…f291backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 37c | 28.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 61c | 27.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 53c | 27.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Yes | 49c | 26.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 24.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 59c | 21.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 78c | 19.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 17.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.