TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,183
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,322

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,183 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x99bc…4f35backed No43c639.97$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.812,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25c…7908backed Yes76c633.88$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.9222857.5%131 W · 97 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x497b…a32abacked Yes41c479.67$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.9721633.8%73 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No21c445.51$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8279040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes29c387.86$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.9310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No21c250.62$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.72,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes61c247.5$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4753258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No32c222.91$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.644,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5331…3672backed No68c212.33$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.082568%17 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes25c208.13$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.648,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes52c200$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4927129.2%79 W · 192 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes16c196.48$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.4586226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked No49c178.97$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9734748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No52c164.8$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.775,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes60c133.81$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1264460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes65c131.98$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2945540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked Yes73c127.8$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1130665%199 W · 107 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No62c124.93$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.877,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes25c122.13$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.1376936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c121$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5530…8ca0backed Yes75c120$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.477969.6%55 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes58c114.79$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.042,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked Yes79c114.28$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2842061.2%257 W · 163 L+19.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No36c112.67$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.544,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x438a…61c4backed Yes72c105.8$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0823143.3%100 W · 131 L+19.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No20c103.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.316,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae4c…d114backed No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.519148.7%93 W · 98 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes54c98.12$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5688028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No44c96.6$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No70c96$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4422550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes51c88$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.552,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes39c80$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.896,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes26c77.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4647935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No78c69.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.592,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No76c69$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4480560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No52c65.42$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.711,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x680a…0a15backed Yes28c63.8$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.654533.3%15 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No44c63.73$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.92,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…2d49backed No24c62.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155715.8%9 W · 48 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No69c61.32$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.269,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes51c59.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.081,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes28c54.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.345836.2%21 W · 37 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed No59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.641,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No77c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.554547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes28c46.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.634,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No26c42.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.092,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c3b…2bf8backed Yes36c41.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.912835.7%10 W · 18 L-5.0wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-35.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c40.13$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No71c35.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1840352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No70c31.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6365965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed Yes46c30.83$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6524139.8%96 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa4…5c82backed No68c30.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.877263.9%46 W · 26 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No75c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.55,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.72,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c28.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.529,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No44c27.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.12,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b6f…b9bebacked No54c27.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.922446.4%104 W · 120 L+31.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No73c27.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.153,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No73c26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9845253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes55c25.39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.498160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a4…9240backed No78c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.53571.4%25 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes65c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.424569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes53c23.76$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.212,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe978…ab29backed Yes64c23.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.656563.1%41 W · 24 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No73c22.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.33,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No76c21.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.361,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.434853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.291,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No78c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.580275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.180957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3f…4851backed No74c19.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.491070%7 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No73c19.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9844567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes76c16.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8923463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd057…ff3dbacked No72c15.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed No66c15.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2839346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No72c15.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.071,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc576…89b8backed No73c15.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.161154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No71c15.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.751,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked Yes71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.319461.9%120 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa978…b643backed Yes75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No72c14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.011,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x398b…0489backed No76c13.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.045461.1%33 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.