Mls · resolved market
Will Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfe033b97ce3fd03752e2749f4b93627b5480c2e73c5ca9974a9f55a1f2e854b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 42c | 6,495$2,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,765.1 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 56c | 3,055$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.28 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 59c | 2,296$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.86 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 66c | 1,403$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.2 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 64c | 1,183$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.76 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 21c | 946.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.39 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 43c | 840.03$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.35 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed No | 61c | 833.26$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.71 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 55c | 727.33$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.46 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 70c | 723.12$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.17 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 12c | 688.44$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.69 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 52c | 626.83$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.51 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 39c | 604.38$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.29 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 58c | 522.05$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.94 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 42c | 481.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.79 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 76c | 263.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 38c | 239.87$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…74c8backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…d55fbacked No | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed No | 36c | 199.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 23c | 196.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.34 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…b127backed No | 33c | 153.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed No | 66c | 150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 36c | 118$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 70 | 74.3%52 W · 18 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +39%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked Yes | 18c | 108.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.19 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 72c | 105$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 80c | 102.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…10d3backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Yes | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed No | 23c | 83.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 62c | 71.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 68c | 66.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 60c | 61.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 59c | 60.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…c60ebacked No | 76c | 55.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 37c | 52.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…8615backed No | 76c | 48.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked No | 61c | 45.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 24c | 43.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff41…387abacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Yes | 41c | 39.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b9…f9ebbacked Yes | 66c | 37.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 36.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed No | 69c | 34.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 72c | 34.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Yes | 34c | 34.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 71c | 33.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed No | 73c | 32.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 75c | 29.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed No | 79c | 28.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 80c | 24.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 60c | 20.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2a1fbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed No | 69c | 17.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 71c | 14.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked No | 79c | 13.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw?this page
- Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-08-19?No won
- Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-08-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.