Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc00f508ed5abcd3256ceffcc21c07c425a0ae97693d67cdc43d71ed95e9f616e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 44c | 1,206$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.93 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 431.51$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.51 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 372.6$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.67 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 55c | 331.1$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.69 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 276.8$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 232$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 57c | 220$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 49c | 190$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 52c | 183.16$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 181.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 59c | 180.81$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.41 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 55c | 166$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 50c | 152.23$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 41c | 140.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 51c | 129.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 127.58$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 111.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 45c | 78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 73c | 77.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 74.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 31c | 73.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 52c | 71.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 45c | 64.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 62.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 20c | 57.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 56c | 57.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 52c | 56.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 46c | 55.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 43c | 54.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…a2f2backed Yes | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…f949backed Yes | 59c | 51.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 51.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 49c | 49.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 45.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…8993backed Yes | 52c | 45.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…61babacked No | 49c | 42.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 43c | 41.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 45c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed No | 54c | 39.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 58c | 38.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 50c | 35.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 57c | 34.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 51c | 34.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 46c | 33.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…0543backed Yes | 51c | 32.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 47c | 29.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 50c | 28.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 49c | 27.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…7c05backed No | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 51c | 25.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 55c | 23.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…bb96backed No | 49c | 22.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 51c | 21.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…78dabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3c…eafbbacked Yes | 57c | 19.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 51c | 19.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…2be0backed Yes | 58c | 18.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.