TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,647
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,643

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,647 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes46c2,622$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.5942036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No58c941.6$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.572,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No63c693.9$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.158,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes47c597.92$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.533232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb581…b496backed Yes47c533.63$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.975637.5%21 W · 35 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-41.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes40c533.22$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.115,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes47c523.8$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.612,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes37c491.95$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.154,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No56c413$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.223,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No56c406.03$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.552,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef11…a7a1backed Yes32c362.11$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.685335.8%19 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c342.03$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.7710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes31c308.36$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.9725549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No50c276.81$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.444,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No49c274.75$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.964,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed62…c51dbacked Yes46c256.68$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.3934628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes49c250$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.577555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No70c239$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.643,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes38c238.99$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.531,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes33c216.03$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.078,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No44c214.47$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.584124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No52c208.79$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.486,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes30c196$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.263143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No46c190.82$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.171,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes38c180.6$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.7289544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed No65c180$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11728455.6%158 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No66c176.18$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8192678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c174.16$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.565,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c170.74$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No62c159.98$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.181,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes51c157.08$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9789557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No64c154$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2415966.7%106 W · 53 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No70c143.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.11,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes35c120.63$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.411,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c117.65$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.379,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No52c115.63$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.493,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c110.49$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.77,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No66c110$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.74,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes32c103.29$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.993,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No58c101.37$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.521,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.0581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6227841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6672837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b35…bb20backed Yes74c94.74$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.748263.4%52 W · 30 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes33c92.95$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1263255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes35c84.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6921339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4079…7126backed No57c79.45$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1414054.3%76 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No65c78.46$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b73…174ebacked Yes44c76.8$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7517247.7%82 W · 90 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2b60backed Yes29c75.96$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.65475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+93%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes30c74.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.499,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes34c72.12$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2946743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes37c68.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.272,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No56c66.51$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2392761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes50c65$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6467336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x930c…2980backed Yes48c62.34$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22ab…bedcbacked No61c59$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.81837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed Yes66c55.7$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.138860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes35c55.02$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.763,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2057…0629backed No57c54.89$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.294847.9%23 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes41c51.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.681,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No66c50.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.653,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0716936.1%61 W · 108 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90b5…bc45backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+36.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No28c46.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.922,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6986…5585backed Yes34c45.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.179852%51 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes42c45.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0531943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes34c44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2617324.3%42 W · 131 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes45c43.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0357747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x549c…100abacked Yes30c41.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1712438.7%48 W · 76 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.81,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No53c39.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1954234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No58c39.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No45c39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.441,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes36c38.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4381855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked Yes33c38.06$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.544567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x194b…2a11backed Yes33c38.06$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.528866.3%191 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No43c37.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7639956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No65c36.4$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6930849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes32c35.43$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.141,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes46c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0526344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No51c35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.754,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes66c34.81$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.812,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes48c33.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.414,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No60c32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1445162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes36c32$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4833139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63b0…4122backed No68c32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.618561.2%52 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x073e…8416backed Yes35c31.34$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.358848.9%43 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.92,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.644553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes47c29.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8922645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No68c29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7247569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No67c28.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1998565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No66c28.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.674,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No73c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4499571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed No54c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9819648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06f2…8798backed No69c25.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3416566.1%109 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes64c24.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.71,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.