Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Redhawks (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc058ab84a1fa7f6d1c1c4d9db91084ac4a836cf94f90d0dec8365d8dddbd60e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UTSA Roadrunnersof Seattle Redhawks, UTSA Roadrunners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed UTSA Roadrunners | 46c | 252$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked UTSA Roadrunners | 45c | 215$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.21 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed UTSA Roadrunners | 45c | 211$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.05 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed UTSA Roadrunners | 45c | 180$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked UTSA Roadrunners | 40c | 171$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UTSA Roadrunners | 44c | 116.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed UTSA Roadrunners | 45c | 106$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked UTSA Roadrunners | 45c | 101$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed UTSA Roadrunners | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed UTSA Roadrunners | 43c | 94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed UTSA Roadrunners | 45c | 91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked UTSA Roadrunners | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed UTSA Roadrunners | 45c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed UTSA Roadrunners | 45c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed UTSA Roadrunners | 45c | 61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed UTSA Roadrunners | 45c | 57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed UTSA Roadrunners | 44c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked UTSA Roadrunners | 45c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Seattle Redhawks | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Seattle Redhawks | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed UTSA Roadrunners | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Seattle Redhawks | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Seattle Redhawks | 60c | 43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…92cbbacked Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.8wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Seattle Redhawks | 54c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed UTSA Roadrunners | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed UTSA Roadrunners | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Seattle Redhawks | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Seattle Redhawks | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…7ed2backed Seattle Redhawks | 56c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Seattle Redhawks | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +6.9wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Seattle Redhawks | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Seattle Redhawks | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ae…89d9backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Seattle Redhawks | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…854dbacked Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Seattle Redhawks | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…9f7cbacked Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Seattle Redhawks | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Seattle Redhawks | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked Seattle Redhawks | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Seattle Redhawks | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…4f9cbacked Seattle Redhawks | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67de…1d9bbacked Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked Seattle Redhawks | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Seattle Redhawks | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d746backed Seattle Redhawks | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…2894backed Seattle Redhawks | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Seattle Redhawks | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Redhawks (-7.5)this page
- Seattle Redhawks vs. UTSA RoadrunnersSeattle Redhawks won
- Seattle Redhawks vs. UTSA Roadrunners: O/U 142.5Under won
- Seattle Redhawks vs. UTSA Roadrunners: O/U 143.5Under won
- Seattle Redhawks vs. UTSA Roadrunners: O/U 144.5Under won
- Seattle Redhawks vs. UTSA Roadrunners: O/U 145.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Redhawks (-8.5)UTSA Roadrunners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.