NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc13dff74232c5dadec96ae6a946c876c0eb49676c9e64481a70f84e1efcd0d22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Celtics, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5df…382dbacked Celtics | 48c | 10,830$5,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,155.72 | 163 | 35.6%58 W · 105 L | -12.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs | 48c | 6,426$3,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,317.93 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Celtics | 42c | 6,371$2,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,675.82 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 56c | 6,131$3,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,713.77 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Celtics | 44c | 5,291$2,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,328 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Spurs | 58c | 3,448$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.28 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Celtics | 48c | 3,122$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.1 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Celtics | 50c | 2,792$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.85 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spurs | 49c | 2,096$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.79 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…bd7dbacked Spurs | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.14 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Spurs | 56c | 1,684$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.05 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Celtics | 44c | 847$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.44 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Spurs | 58c | 520$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Celtics | 37c | 449$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.56 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +12.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60de…6453backed Celtics | 45c | 444.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.30per pick | 37cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x236a…1a3ebacked Celtics | 44c | 355.27$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.32 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics | 42c | 295.62$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.16 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Spurs | 58c | 193$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.26 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Celtics | 44c | 182.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Celtics | 44c | 170.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…638abacked Spurs | 58c | 164.88$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8aa…0ae3backed Spurs | 71c | 140.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x058a…ed5cbacked Spurs | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Spurs | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Spurs | 49c | 111$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…dedebacked Spurs | 53c | 108.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Celtics | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Celtics | 30c | 97.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Spurs | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…851fbacked Celtics | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfc97…7206backed Spurs | 57c | 70.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Celtics | 53c | 63.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a52…c0e8backed Celtics | 44c | 63.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Spurs | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 358 | 44.1%158 W · 200 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ab…d322backed Spurs | 58c | 59.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Celtics | 46c | 55.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Spurs | 56c | 52.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Celtics | 43c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 448 | 44.2%198 W · 250 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Celtics | 49c | 47.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed Celtics | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 383 | 50.4%193 W · 190 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Celtics | 45c | 45.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0104…530ebacked Spurs | 55c | 44.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Celtics | 48c | 41.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 306 | 16.7%51 W · 255 L | -36.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Spurs | 50c | 39.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Celtics | 40c | 38.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Celtics | 45c | 34.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Celtics | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 220 | 48.6%107 W · 113 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Spurs | 38c | 28.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Celtics | 46c | 27.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Spurs | 54c | 23.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Spurs | 50c | 21.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Spurs | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…a17ebacked Spurs | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…1b84backed Spurs | 59c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. CelticsSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Spurs vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.