NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 118.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d15759c36cd7a7b2aebcf5aeb133578f9f86ace38dfeebcd9dfb6f47d2f527b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ee…ca3cbacked Over | 67c | 14,860$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 35c | 10,773$3,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,048.83 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 44c | 2,029$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.74 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 43c | 1,174$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.39 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 43c | 554.37$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.14 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Under | 9c | 500$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 85 | 11.8%10 W · 75 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Under | 8c | 400$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ac…9955backed Under | 11c | 400$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 56c | 319.8$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.09 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Under | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under | 8c | 250$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.5 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Under | 10c | 218.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.28 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Under | 48c | 102.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 159 | 59.1%94 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Under | 47c | 97.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 52c | 77.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 41c | 56.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Under | 43c | 45.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 41c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 52c | 28.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…79b6backed Over | 57c | 22.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4a17backed Over | 61c | 18.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 118.5this page
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. CelticsSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Spurs vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.