NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27f7f62789828be1d19ceb69c8ac1efb7f92a04a03c318edbb6ef9e21b249c1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 2,850$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.54 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 52c | 2,092$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.71 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 49c | 1,837$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.73 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Under | 50c | 1,683$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.5 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 53c | 1,542$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 50c | 1,514$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.84 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 53c | 1,418$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 49c | 1,160$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.28 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 1,142$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 48c | 1,005$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.31 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 985.49$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.82 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Under | 49c | 781.04$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.04 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 700$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 657$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.78 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 54c | 469$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.26 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 52c | 294$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.88 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 48c | 277.84$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.48 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 268.26$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.49 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Under | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 47c | 66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…84b0backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 193 | 46.6%90 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 48c | 35.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 48c | 34.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Over | 53c | 31.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Over | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5this page
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. CelticsSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Spurs vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.