Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1401cca480f37854795b6a508e7458ccafbfdc5eeb74c0fe394e5a5a67e831b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 53c | 1,429$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.1 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 53c | 334.62$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 68c | 250$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 246.14$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.58 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 242.07$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 48c | 193.8$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 192$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 45c | 173$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 163.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed No | 48c | 160$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 48c | 152.36$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 140.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 47c | 140.63$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 63c | 111.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 46c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 48c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 61c | 104.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 14c | 104$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…7f22backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 19c | 92.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 83.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 78.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 68c | 75.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 53c | 73.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 51c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 51c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 58.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…554ebacked Yes | 45c | 55.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 61c | 53.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 48c | 52.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 67c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 51c | 50.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 42c | 50.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 47c | 49.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 24c | 47.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 67c | 46.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 55c | 45.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed No | 54c | 45.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 42.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 54c | 41.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 41.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb35d…9dabbacked No | 58c | 40.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 41c | 32.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 50c | 31.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 28.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 28.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…e514backed No | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.7wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 68c | 26.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 57c | 23.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 72c | 19.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.