Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc764e2dd2d6086ba5a95d6c2590bb357f8490aafc1c60f270141036eed87e7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 743.78$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 272.79$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 242.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…b31dbacked Yes | 36c | 194.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 163$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 9c | 151.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 65c | 149.97$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 142.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 135$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 122.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 111.7$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 94.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 30c | 72.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 35c | 71.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 34c | 71.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 37c | 68.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 63.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 29c | 62.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 59.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…554ebacked Yes | 40c | 52.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 50.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc9…f3d2backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +147.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 47.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed Yes | 31c | 44.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 37.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 36.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 31.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 29.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 74c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 26.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 25.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 23.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 73c | 21.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…49c3backed No | 60c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 71c | 14.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.